Analyzing Terrorist Risk Levels /
An Alternative Methodology & Algorithmic Framework /
Wilson, Melody;Gaston, Cory /
6/13/2013 /
The study of terrorist organizations is important to determine the full capacity in which a group can operate or attack at any given time. An increase in the number of terrorist groups with a wide array of capabilities and ideologies proliferate danger to United States security. This project explores a new methodology for identifying risk levels of potential threats through a computational program. By using an algorithm to analyze a number of variables we determine the risk level of a terrorist, terrorist group, or alleged terrorist organization. Variables include but are not limited to: location, structure, membership, funding, region, ethnicity and capabilities. /
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
Variable Diagram
Weighting
VARIABLES
Variable Spreadsheet
Independent Variables
Regions
Structure
Support
Funding
Current & Past Conflicts
Membership
Capabilities
Affiliation
Ideology
Co-Dependent Variables
PROGRAM
Targets:
User Input:
Program Ex. 1
Program Ex. 2
Coding/Output Screen Shots
Output:
Limitation of Program:
CONCLUSION
BIBLIOGRAPHY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Advancements in U.S. defense capabilities and intelligence havecaused an increase in the emphasis on technology and education in the terrorist realm.These progressions have made it more challenging to protect the United States from immediate threats. Advancements in terrorist capabilities produce an increased demand for new ways to interpret data and meet these new challenges.Our goal isto deliver an alternative approach to analyzing terrorist networks through quantifying qualitative data analysis and computer science.
Our computer program, the Terrorist Risk Level Program (TRLP), provides a way to catalog threat levels of terrorist/ terrorist organizations by analyzing characteristics and risk factors through a novel process that combines analytical reasoning and computer computations.The program uses an algorithm and weighted variables to calculate the probability in which a group’s capabilities can affect U.S. national security. Characteristics of groups are analyzed by weighing how each variable acts independently and, when relevant, co-dependently to enable the abilities of groups.
A strong feature of this program is its ability to optimize large amounts of information by analyzing the key components that make terrorists dangerous. We do this by weighing the impact of critical components that aid in the abilities of terrorist networks. Assigning weighted factors allows for establishing importance as it relates to the impact of risk levels and priorities. In the final assessment, these weighted variables become a part of the calculation used to determine an accurate overall rating of a given organization. By simplifying the process of identifying a network or person’s risk level, the program enables the user to prioritize the importance of such groups based upon projected analysis.
Nevertheless, this program is not intended to replace the analyst but to assist in cyphering through the nuances of infinite data and resources regarding the expectations of a terrorist group, person, or organization.This program can be useful to policymakers and analysts as a tool of reference for identifying terrorist risk levels.
Improvements to the program are recommended in data storage after running the process, adding more dynamics to factors being analyzed, and also exploring different alternatives for calculation and weighting. The primary limitation of this program stems from the knowledge level of the user on the specific terrorist group. In other words, if the user is not informed or well aware of information regarding the terrorist factors being analyzed it can cause miscalculation or skewed perception of risk level. Another significant limitation could be over reliance on the software by the analyst.
INTRODUCTION
Although there is no universally accepted definition of terrorism, it is important to understand what it is and how it is perceived in order to counter terrorist acts on a national as well as international level. [1],[2]According to U.S. federal code,terrorism is defined as“the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof,in furtherance of political or social objectives.”[3] Unfortunately, identifying terrorist organizations is a challenging task with consideration of the commonly used saying, "One man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter.”[4],[5]According to the U.S. Army handbook, “A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century”:
The threat of terrorism to the U.S. is present across the entire spectrum of conflict. The use of terrorism ranges from individual acts of wanton damage or destruction to property or person, to highly sophisticated operations conducted by organized extremist groups with social, environmental, religious, economic, or political agendas. Any of these terrorist activities can have significant negative impact on the conduct of missions by U.S. military forces.[6]
As a result of increased terrorist threats, the U.S. has used countless resourcesto develop new technologies that have the ability to aid the country in global security efforts. Nevertheless, as the years have passed, there has been a significant interest in the increase of terrorist organizations and alleged persons with the intent to harm the U.S. Studies show that between the years of 1970 and 2011, the United States experienced a total of 2,608 attacks and 226 of those attacks were fatal. [7] Preventing incidents such as those encountered during the September 11th attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon fuel many government intelligence and security agencies to stay on the cutting edge of technology in science, cyber, and military tactics.
Due to the increase in terrorist groups with the intent to harm the United State we developed TRLP to assist in aiding the US government, analyst and policymakers when analyzing possible terrorist risk levels.
METHODOLOGY
According to the FBI: “One of the most effective weapons in the prevention of terrorist attacks involves the gathering, analysis, and dissemination of intelligence and the full integration of that intelligence into investigations, operations, and crisis response.”[8] Thus, different tools and research play critical roles in predicting motives of terrorist, threat levels, and intentions in our methodology.
In order to reduce bias, research was extracted from various sources such as government agencies, encyclopedias, reputable news sources, non-profit organizations (think tanks/research institutions) and scholarly articles to determine variables that associate terroristswith threats to the United States. The findings were analyzed, strategically assembled, weighted then compiled into charts based upon connections and significance.
With easily accessible information, we constructed a computer program to determine the risk level of a specified terrorist group’s probability to attack the United States. We achieved this by collecting comprehensive information from the user relating to an organization, in which our program presents the risk level to be “Low”, “Medium”,“High” or “Extremely High.”Projected outputs are determined by the scoring/points a group or person receives once the variable weight values and algorithm arecalculated.
C++, an intermediate programming software, was used to write the coding for TRLP. By using C++, we were able optimize our findings based upon analyzed variables that are calculated using a linear algorithm. Variables refer but are not limited to: Ideology, Regions, Funding, Affiliation, Membership, Support and Structure.
Variable Diagram
Weighting
When constructing an overall scale based on several variables,there is consideration that some of the variables are deemed more important than others. Weighting variables when adding several in scale construction allows some of them to be given more weight based upon a variety of considerations. The simplest accumulation of variables with equal weights may be regarded as unfair when concluding that more important factors should be given more weight.
These weights for given variables in this project arise from the data acquired through various procedures. Proceduresinvolve factor analysis, which reduces a number of observed variables to a smaller number of underlying "factors", and each observed variable has a different weight towards each underlying factor. For example, the capabilities of a terrorist group or person(s) is weighted based on underlying factors such as weaponry, training, and technology which may impact the terrorist risk level by increasing the weight if a group possess a given factor.
Qualitative data encompasses 83% of the factors being used to analyze the terrorist risk level. Quantitative data only accounts for 12% of the entire information gathered. In order to use the information from both data sets, everything had to be weighted with the intention of producing a numerical value that could be calculated into the final algorithm. The weighting of each individual variable allowed each factor to be represented on a scale of 1 to 5; with 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score obtainable.
VARIABLES
A total of 24 variables are used within the project to identify factors that play a role in increasing the ability of a terrorist group or person to attack the United States. 10 of these variables operate independently to impact the risk level, and the other 14 variables function as subcategories or codependent factors whose impact are influenced or influences that of the independent variable it is associated with. Below is a chart that summarizes the list of variables, definitions, and weights.
Variable Spreadsheet
**SHADED content denotes independent variables**
Variable / Description / WeightRegion / Location of group/person / 6
Structure / How things are set-up; How orders are given/received / 9
Hierarchal / All entities in organization are subordinate except one. There is hierarchy in the chain of command. / 3
Network / More social, decentralized, and flexible. Has a wide span of control. Many interconnected groups. / 5
Chain Network / Linear flow of information and commands. / 3
Hub/Star Network / Many networks interconnected and filtering through one central point of command. / 4
All-Channel Network / Many interconnected groups which the flow of command/information coming from multiple cells. / 5
Support / Backing of groups that sustains the livelihood of group/persons abilities and resources / 8
Government Funding / Financial backing from government / 5
Government Aid / Aid such as weapons, resources, etc. / 5
Civilian/Popular / Acceptance from community/civilian population / 2
Funding / Financing consisting of the funds the cell needs to live and to plan, train for, and commit the terrorist act. / 5
Current Conflicts / Current issues post 2010 / 3
Past Attacks / Attacks on the US prior to 2010 / 2
Membership / Who’s a part/ How many/ Why are they important / 4
Size / Known/ Anticipated size of group / 1-5
Recruitment / Methods/ Status of members/Education / 5
Capabilities / Skills, aptitudes, and proficiencies the group/person has acquired or offers. / 10
Training / Training camps/ preparation for recruits / 3
Weapons / Bombs, guns, WMD, etc. / 5
Technology / Advanced capabilities / 5
Affiliations / Connected networks/enablers / 7
Societal Influences / Philosophy/ values of group or person(s) / 1
Culture / Nature of their surroundings/Norms/extremes / 1-5
Independent Variables
Independent variables in this program are those deemed most important from acquired and analyzed information gathered during research. There are 10 independent variables, ranked on a scale of 1 to 10, based on the order of importance. This ranking provides a scalar for each variable that will be incorporated into the actual weight of the independent variable being assessed. For example, an independent variable with the ranking of 5 has a scalar of 5 for its calculation.
Regions
The location of a group or person can provide insight for evaluating outlooks toward the United States as well as judging the level of hostility of groups in a particular region. Geographic location can influence a group or person based upon stigmas that are imposed by the surroundings, economic standing, or government structure.
Structure
Association between or among terrorist groups increase their capabilities through the exchange of knowledge and other resources. With these common goals it allowed religions or organization to create affiliations and build several different structure types which increase their power, reach and capabilities. Simultaneously, it reduces sectarian conflict amongst the different religious sects. There are two basis models of organizational structures of terrorist organizations; hierarchical and network structure with network structure having a variety of types.[9]
Hierarchical structure organizations are those that have a well-defined vertical chain of command, control, and responsibility. In this type of structure, there will be specialized areas among the organization such as support, operations and intelligence. Usually the cell (individual group within the structure) leader will have acknowledgement of the other cells involved and their role. Each cell within the structure will have a particular political, social, or economic objective.
Network structure is a little more complex and more prevalent in today’s organizations. A network distributes the responsibility for operations and plan for redundancies of key functions.As mentioned there are various types of network structures; the basic types are chain, hub/star, and all channel.
Chain is designed so that each cell (group) is linked to the node in a sequence for a continuous link of communication; this is designed for smuggling goods, people or laundering money.[10]Hub and Star network structure communication is directed at one central cell, not necessarily a leader or decision maker. It gives them the ability to communicate with the other cells; this structure is primary in financial or economic networks. All channel structure poses security risk considering all channels are connected and there is no command structure above it. The commands are distributed throughout the entire network with a continuous flow of communication; this enables the feasibility of directing orders.
Support
The U.S. Department of State has recognizeshow state supported terrorist groups increase possibility of attack to the United States. For example,despite its pledge to support the stabilization of Iraq, in 2011 Iran continued to provide lethal support including: weapons, training, funding, and guidance to Iraqi Shia militant groups that targeted U.S. and Iraqi forces.[11] It is important to understand there are different levels and participation of State support for terrorist groups. Other variable are critical in accessing the chance of attacks although the level of support does increase the risk levels.
Non-state supported terrorist groups that operate autonomously, receiving no significant support from any government. In general these groups will hold no major threat. Other variables are important in accessing their intentions and discontent with the United States.
State sponsorship of terrorism, also known as "state supported" terrorism, is when governments provide supplies, training, and other forms of support to non-state terrorist organizations.[12] These groups are often very dangerous and can be compared to organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, who are supported by foreign governments, specifically Syria and Iran. [13],[14] Other factors are important include moral values, culture and other practices which can act as risk amplifiers.
Funding
Terrorist financing refers to the processing of funds to sponsor, facilitate or supply terrorists with resources to carry out their attacks.[15],[16]A terrorist group, like any other criminal organization, builds and maintains an infrastructure to facilitate the development of sources of funding, to channel those funds to the providers of materials and or services to the organization. Terrorist organizations accumulate income from a variety of sources, often combining both lawful and unlawful practices.
Financial support can be in the form of donations, community solicitation, and other fundraising initiatives; this can derive from states, large organizations, or from individual donations. For example,some countriesrequirea percent of income to go charities which, knowingly or unknowingly,are used for funding terrorist organizations.[17]On other occasions wealthy anti-American individuals will propagate criminal activities by funding terrorism. Other revenue generating activities include kidnapping, extortion, smuggling, fraud, diamond trading or real estate investment.
There are many avenues that terrorist organizations take to generate income, thus increase their strength by supplying them the resources they need to carry out their objectives. The ability they have to accumulate income provides organizations opportunities to begin tackling some of their operational and technical challenges. Well-funded terrorist groups have the ability to create and distribute chemical and biological weapons, to injure or kill a larger amount of individuals.
Current & Past Conflicts
Past and current conflicts play a critical role in identifying the intent ofterrorist organizations. Understanding past events and the way a group or terrorist acted in the past can support the analysis in determining the probability of future threats.
When taking into consideration the impact of past actions on the influence of possible future conflicts or those taking place currently, we keep in mind that the terrorist realm is ever changing. Constant advancements in this arena make it more challenging to declare that events or actions in the past will influence or impact their actions in the future. For this reason weighting of these variable in our program account for less than what we originally expected.
The understanding of a central/common belief has shifted operational intensity from traditional sources of terrorism; state sponsors and formalized terrorist organizations, to loosely affiliated extremists. Greater cooperation among terrorist groups since the1993 World Trade Center bombing have produces homegrown extremists with seeming links to larger organizations.[18] Theses links and affiliations can be associated with ongoing conflicts from anti-American theologies.
Membership
The impact of a group’s membership is not solely based upon how large a group may be. In some cases, smaller membership sizes are more effective than larger groups because of their tight cohesion and ability to alleviate multiple focuses and stay on the same page. Smaller groups or individuals can also play on the fact that they are harder to pin point as opposed to groups that are well known or with larger membership sizes. Advantages of larger groups can also be argued based upon their high numbers. Larger groupscan inflict larger terrorist acts, reach more sources through multiple affiliations and still maintain operation if one person or cell is eliminated.For these reasons, large and small groups are weighted relatively equally.