Analytical Support for the Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan:
Application To Heavy Rail Transport
A Thesis
In TCC 402
Presented to
The Faculty of the
School of Engineering and Applied Science
University of Virginia
In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree
Bachelor of Science in Systems and Information Engineering
by
David Cowden
March 24, 2003
On my honor as a University student, on this assignment I have neither given nor received unauthorized aid as defined by the Honor Guidelines for papers in TCC Courses.
Signed______
Approved______Date______
Technical Advisor- James H. Lambert
Approved______Date______
TCC Advisor – Betsy Mendelsohn
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 FEDERAL LEGISLATION
1.2 BACKGROUND
1.3 TEAM PROJECT
1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTION
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
CHAPTER 3: AREAS OF IMPACT
3.1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS
3.2 SOCIAL IMPACTS
3.3 POLITICAL IMPACTS
CHAPTER 4: METHODS AND MATERIALS
4.1 BACKGROUND RESEARCH
4.2 METRIC DEFINITION
4.3 COMPARISON TOOL SOFTWARE
4.4 DATA GATHERING
4.5 HEAVY RAIL CASE STUDY
CHAPTER 5: DATA AND RESULTS
CHAPTER 6: INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION
7.1 SUMMARY
7.2 INTERPRETATION
7.3 RECOMMENDATIONS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX A: TEA-21 CRITERIA
APPENDIX B: METRICS BROKEN DOWN BY MOTIVATION
APPENDIX C: GANTT CHART
ABSTRACT
In accord with the vision of VTrans2025 “to build a world-class multimodal transportation system,” there is the need for analytical methods to improve the communication and cooperation among the various modal transportation agencies of the Commonwealth of Virginia (VTC 2002). This Capstone team provides systems analytical support through the extension and application of a transportation project comparison tool to multimodal systems involving aviation, transit, rail, port, and roadway projects. This comparison tool represents the extent to which transportation projects and multimodal systems promote economic development, intermodalism and mobility, quality of life, fiscal responsibility, systems management, and transportation safety and security. Through modal case studies, this team recommends metrics of multimodal system performance while addressing a twenty-year planning horizon and ensuring that technological initiatives are emphasized. For this report, a case study of the comparison tool was completed through interaction with Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transit, and the Virginia Department of Transportation. This thesis contains a heavy rail case study that provides, methods for performance metric selection, sample project data collection, and graphical displays illustrating project priority. The case study results prove that it is possible to analytically prioritize heavy rail transportation improvement projects in Virginia.
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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 FEDERAL LEGISLATION
The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) and the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) establish the need for states to consider alternate transportation modes when planning and prioritizing projects (Fontaine, Miller 2002). This legislation urges states to examine diverse collections of transportation improvement projects that fit together into a larger multimodal framework. Improved multimodal planning implies a balanced, well-integrated multimodal system plan that facilitates better connection and communication among modes. The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) has requested that the UVA Capstone team help the Commonwealth of Virginia by providing analytical support for the Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan. Thus the need for a comparison tool to prioritize multimodal systems has been established.
1.2 BACKGROUND
Policy makers in Virginia are currently troubled with the task of improving transportation infrastructures in order to ensure a better economy, environment and quality of life. Currently state transportation agencies receive limited funding to maintain and improve local infrastructures and transportation systems. Because of this, thousands of proposed construction projects compete for the same limited funds. In the past, agency officials have based their prioritization decisions on subjective metrics such as, purpose, scope, need, size and location of certain projects. As a result of this subjective decision-making, planning officials have had a difficult time of selecting which potential projects to undertake. Prioritization is defined as the selection of projects to be funded as well as the order in which the projects should be undertaken. With the recent TEA-21 legislation, U.S. states are now urged to follow certain guidelines for prioritizing improvement projects that qualify for federal funding. Under this new mandate, states are more likely to receive Federal funding if they comply with the TEA-21 guidelines. Therefore, it is necessary for all transportation modes (aviation, transit, rail, port and roadway) to implement a new method for comparing potential improvement projects (VTC 2002).
At the 2002 Virginia Transportation Conference (VTC), the Statewide Transportation Steering Committee delivered the following statement, “Our vision is to build a world-class multimodal transportation system that sets the standards for the rest of the nation.” Along with this vision, transportation planners presented a plan called VTrans2025. VTrans2025, the statewide multimodal long-range transportation plan, encourages connectivity among all modes of transportation and is the result of coordination between federal, state and regional agencies (VTC 2002).
Figure 1 contains a flow chart, which is part of the VTrans2025 plan that was presented at the 2002 VTC. This chart shows a future plan where individual modes submit project proposals to a planning committee that will then determine how well each project fits into a multimodal system. A multimodal system by definition is a proposed construction project that consists of two or more modes of transportation. Multimodal systems will then be scored using a comparison tool. Individual projects that are part of a larger system will receive bonus points in their respective modal priority selection. As a result, only projects that benefit a larger multimodal system shall receive state and federal funding.
1.3 TEAM PROJECT
Last year, the University of Virginia and the Virginia Transportation Research Council developed a tool that presents the cost-benefit-risk tradeoffs in roadway improvement projects. However, this tool was confined to prioritizing roadway projects. By the recent requests of VDOT, Dr. James Lambert and my Capstone team including Mohammed Ali, Brister Barrett, Kenneth Peterson, Ariel Pinta and Jared Zane are working on a modified tool that prioritizes multimodal systems. This phase of work is denoted by circle #2 in figure 1. This research helps transportation planners score multimodal systems so that they can inform individual modes as to which projects should receive funding.
1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTION
For an individual contribution, I performed a case study on heavy rail transportation. Heavy rail consists of freight or cargo rail carriers and excludes passenger rail transit. This step in the flow chart process is denoted by circle #1 in figure 1. Each member of my Capstone team performed case studies on different modes of transportation. Mohammed Ali worked with the Department of Aviation (DOAV), Brister Barrett worked with the Virginia Port Authority (VPA), while Jared Zane and myself worked with the Department of Rail and Public Transport (DRPT). This study consisted of collecting and defining performance metrics that specifically apply to heavy rail transportation. Next I collected information on sample improvement projects and entered the data into the Capstone team’s comparison tool software. Finally, to increase VDOT’s comprehension of the study, results were shown using various graphical representations.
Figure 1:VTrans 2025 Flow Chart: Statewide Multimodal Planning (VTC 2002)
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
Scientists, engineers, researchers and students have developed many different methods for comparing projects as well as multimodal systems. A report prepared by Michael Fontaine and John Miller in August 2002 entitled “Survey of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Planning Practices” closely examines innovative practices used by other states (Fontaine, Miller 2002). The report served as a starting point by providing insight on the various techniques that can be used for prioritizing multimodal systems. After reviewing other state’s methods, the team concentrated on performance measure selection. For information on this process, a report from the 2002 Transportation Research Board conference provided helpful assistance. The conference was entitled, “Performance Measures to Improve Transportation Systems and Agency Operations.” Information from this report included guidance for defining performance metrics, implementing performance measures and choosing the “right” measure selection (Conference Proceedings 26). The report also offered examples of performance metrics chosen by other states. Another report provided by the Transportation Research Board entitled, “Trends and Issues in Transportation” discusses the importance of performance measure selection (TRB Field Visit Program 1997).
The current Capstone project is an extension of a comparison tool for roadway projects that was created over the course of the past two years. Last year, Professor Jim Lambert and his Capstone team worked on a comparison tool that allowed VDOT to prioritize roadway projects. Figure 2 below shows a graphical display of their comparison tool results (Lambert 2002).
Figure 2: Roadway Comparison Tool (Lambert 2002)
The display compares the crashes avoided (per year) to the travel time saved (in minutes) for 30 different roadway projects. The size of the circles relates to the cost of each project. Many of the metrics and methods used in the previous two years were referenced and re-used in my research. The comparison method shown in Figure 2 serves as a foundation for my research. The software used in Figure 2 was expanded is now used for prioritizing projects within other modes of transportation. Kenneth Peterson, a graduate BS/MS student, assisted our team in modifying the comparison tool. Kenneth has also been working on different methods of graphically displaying the comparisons.
For my individual section concerning heavy rail transport, Wilbur Smith Associates has been doing recent work on integrating rail lines with multimodal systems. Wilbur Smith Associates is an international consulting organization providing specialized professional services to the transportation industry. In a report entitled, “Railway Services,” WSA discusses multimodal systems development. They believe that a systems approach to transportation planning and engineering is fundamental to the successful development of transportation infrastructure services (Railway Services 2002). In addition they believe that a functional multimodal system can provide a well placed “info structure” that facilitates the flow of information between the network operators throughout the multimodal system (Railway Services 2002). They touch on ways to decrease “choke points” or “bottle necks” through a process called intermodal correction. They presented their future goals involving freight rail’s increasing presence in Virginia at the 2002 Virginia Transportation Conference (VTC 2002). Another piece of literature that was especially useful was the Freight-Rail Bottom Line Report compiled by the American Association of State and Highway and Transportation Officials. The report entitled, “Transportation: Invest in America” describes the nation’s freight rail system, its issues, and its needs (AASHTO 2002). The report discusses concerns about the capacity of the nation’s freight rail system and how it will try to keep pace with the expected growth of the economy in the next 20 years. According to this repot, relatively small public investment in the nation’s railroads can be leveraged into relatively large public benefits (AASHTO 2002). Moreover, the report provides a picture of the benefits of freight transportation to the nation and the value of strategic transportation investments.
Additional literature includes “An Aid To The Comparison of Major Infrastructure Improvements” written by James Lambert (Lambert 2002). This report discusses how communication and cooperation amongst the transportation agencies in a state transportation system can be improved so that funds can be allocated in a more efficient manner. A report entitled “Commonwealth Rail Issues” that was presented at the 2002 Virginia Transportation Conference discussed Virginia railroads’ stake in economic development (VTC 2002). A National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 436 entitled “Guidance for Communicating the Economic Impacts of Transportation Investments” contains the results of research into communicating linkages between transportation investments and economic performance (Ostria 1999). In addition to the large amount of literature reviewed, policy-meeting minutes provided by Katherine Graham, via e-mail, allowed our team to follow the progress of the Long Range Policy Committee for Virginia. Our Capstone advisor also forwards copies of e-mail correspondence among Virginia transportation planning officials. This is helpful since the Long Range Policy Committee is often times changing their goals or scope and it is important that our team remains well informed on current issues.
CHAPTER 3: AREAS OF IMPACT
Many economic, social and political impacts arise from the implementation of this comparison tool. Groups affected will include, Virginia citizens, politicians and transportation officials. Should the tool be applied to other states, there is potential for every citizen in the U.S. to somehow be affected.
3.1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Virginia’s transportation facilities are major assets for the promotion of economic growth. Railroads carry 16 percent of the nation’s freight by tonnage and make a substantial contribution to the national economy as well as to the economies of most states (AASHTD 2002). Freight rail provides shippers with cost effective transportation, especially for heavy and bulky commodities and can be a critical factor in retaining and attracting industries that are central to state and regional economies (AASHTD 2002). Figure 3 shows future freight growth in volume as predicted by the U.S. Department of Transportation in 2002. Currently, each mode of transportation in Virginia has many proposed construction projects that require funding. For example, the Northern Virginia 2020 Transportation Plan estimates under-funded transportation needs over the next twenty years at $15 billion or $750 million per year (NVTC). Although the amount of federal funding that Virginia transportation agencies receive has increased from 35% in 1996 to 60% in 2000, this still leaves Virginia paying 40% of the annual transportation costs (NVTC). Having an increase in the number of projects along with a decrease in the amount of available funds is going to leave Virginia in a serious budgeting crisis.
Figure 3: Freight Activity: 1998, 2010 and 2020 (U.S. DOT, FHA 2002)
The proposed comparison tool alleviates this crisis by allowing transportation planning committees to analytically choose which construction systems to undertake. This ensures that taxpayers’ money goes towards the most important projects, thus decreasing the amount of money that is spent on unnecessary improvements.
3.2 SOCIAL IMPACTS
The second impact of my research deals with various social aspects, specifically human mobility. Human mobility is defined as the ease at which people are able to move from one place to another. By using this comparison tool, agency officials are able to fund individual projects or operations that are part of larger multimodal systems. This allows people and cargo to quickly travel from mode to mode and experience fewer problems or delays along the way. Network operators will be able to communicate more effectively which will allow them to pool their resources, knowledge and data in order to maximize efficiency. Furthermore, as the nation moves toward homeland security, integrated multimodal systems that provide a better flow of communication between modes will become essential components of national security.
3.3 POLITICAL IMPACTS
The third major impact involves political aspects. Historically, policy makers have chosen to undertake projects in a subjective manner. In other words, purely qualitative ranking methods were used. My comparison tool allows policy makers to apply quantitative measurements so that all of their decisions can be data driven. This alleviates some of the pressures felt by politicians when deciding on which transportation projects will best benefit Virginia’s infrastructure. This tool provides policy makers with a set of metrics or performance measures that pertain to all modes of transportation. These metrics can be used to gather numerical data that will be displayed in a manner that is comprehensible to politicians, transportation planners, and the general public.
CHAPTER 4: METHODS AND MATERIALS
For my individual contribution, I performed a case study on heavy rail performance. Heavy rail consists of freight or cargo rail carriers and excludes passenger rail transit. The study is based on the principle that using both quantitative and qualitative measures in multi-criteria decision-making can provide efficient resource allocation. This study investigated how a given set of heavy rail improvement projects can be analyzed and prioritized. To increase VDOT’s comprehension of the results, I graphically represented my findings using multivariate displays and graphical representations.
The activities completed during this research fall into five main steps: Background Research, Metric Definition, Comparison Tool Modification, Data Gathering and Case Study for Heavy Rail. I worked closely with my Capstone group up until the last two steps when I performed some individual analysis.
4.1 BACKGROUND RESEARCH
In September, my Capstone team completed preliminary research on transportation planning and prioritization methods. I spent time searching through different state and national transportation websites and journals mentioned in the literature review section in order to familiarize myself with how agency officials currently attempt to prioritize multimodal projects. Three of the most useful sites are the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transit ( the Virginia Department of Transportation ( and the Transportation Research Board ( Kenneth Peterson explained how last year’s comparison tool works and how he plans to modify it to prioritize multimodal systems. Furthermore, to gain a better understanding of what VDOT expects of our Capstone team, I attended a steering committee meeting on September 11 in Richmond to listen to agency officials discuss a long-term multimodal transportation plan.