DR. CHARLES KELLY

KeanUniversity

ALLISON’S CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF DECISION-MAKING

  1. Rational Model-Policy Is A Product of Choice

(1)Assumes Action has a purpose and was intended.

(2)Assumes the foreign policy maker is singular – the nation state – a monolithic government.

(3)Assumes the action is chosen in response to a strategic problem.

The Rational Model would have us look at the following factors in analyzing foreign policy:

(1)The Nation-State

(2)The Problem

(3)Policy As a Solution

(4)Goal-National Security

(5)Choosing among alternative solutions

  1. Organizational Model – Policy Is A Output

Views foreign policy as a matter of organizational Output

(1)Assumes gov’t perceives problems through organizational sensors. Few problems fall exclusively within the domain of a single organization.

(2)Assumes gov’t consists of a conglomerate of semi-feudal loosely allied organizations, each with a substantial life of its own.

(3)Assumes action stems from organizations’ ambition to be “in on the action,” and (SOP) standard operating procedures organizations employ to perform tasks.

Organizational Model would have us look at foreign policy in this context:

(1)Foreign policy makers are organizations not a single monolithic government.

(2)Problem is seen from different perspectives.

(3)Problem solution is the involvement of a number of organizations some of which are competitive on many issues.

(4)Organizations are simple-minded and imperialistic.

  1. Bureaucratic Model – Policy is an Outcome

(1)Assumes many participants are involved in making foreign policy.

(2)Assumes that the many participants share power and through bargaining will gain or lose influences on the ultimate decision.

(3)Assumes two types of decisions consensual and conflictual.

  1. Consensual is the compromise that all can live with but no one

originally desired a product of synthesizing different demands.

  1. Conflictual one coalition of individuals win over another winner and losers.

The Bureaucratic Model would have us focus on a large number of factors:

(1)Participants in the Policy-Making Process

a. formal and informal participants.

(2)The Participants’ interest, state in the policy and the participants’ power

a. bargaining advantages

b. skill and will in using advantages

c. personal dynamics

IV.Bureaucratic Model – Cont’d

(3)Action as political rather than purely rational

(4)Bargaining Takes Place In these Circumstances

  1. environment – uncertainty, urgency enormous risks
  2. pace of the game – not everyone wants to play or can they devote full attention
  3. structure of the game – should power
  4. rules of the game upper authoritative – don’t hesitate to advance your opinion
  5. rewards of the game

personal advancement – future effectiveness

  1. policy is traceable but hardly predictable too many variables, too much serendipity, and too many errors. Therefore – policy is an outcome of a highly complex and complicated process.

File:acm.doc