Achievements and Shortfalls of Conditional Cash Transfers: Impact Evaluation of Paraguay’s Tekoporã Programme
Fábio Veras Soares (IPC-IG/IPEA)
Rafael Perez Ribas (University of Illinois)
Guilherme Issamu Hirata (IPC-IG)
Cairo, April 1st, 2009
Objective
This paper presents a summary of the impact evaluation of the pilot of Tekoporã, a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme in Paraguay
1. The Tekoporã Programme
2. Database
3. Methodology
4. Main Results
5. Final Remarks
The Tekoporã Programme
Ø Objective: to reduce extreme poverty through direct cash transfer to poor households and to break the intergenerational cycle of poverty
Ø Pilot has started in 2005
Ø 5 districts in 2 departments: 3500 households
Ø Objective: 45,000 households in 2009
Ø 2008: 14,000 beneficiary households
The Tekoporã Programme
Ø Eligibility
o to live in priority districts (IPG)
o to be poor (ICV < 40)
o to have pregnant women and/or with children under 15 years-old
The Tekoporã Programme
Ø Conditionalities
o school attendance
o regular visits to health centres
o update immunizations
Ø Transfer amount:
o Basic: Gs. 60,000 (US$12) per household
o Additional per child under 15: Gs. 30,000 (US$ 6) up to 4 children
Database
Ø Baseline (Ficha Hogar): administrative data
Ø Follow-up (Encuesta de Evaluación)
o January – April, 2007
o 1,102 households
Methodology
Ø Control group
o Eligible households living in the same districts than the beneficiaries but, for some reason, not included in the programme
o Households living in districts where the programme has not been implemented, eligible or not
o 30% treated and 70% control
Methodology
Ø Parameter of interest: ATT
Ø Two estimators:
o Difference in Differences (DD)
Assumption: the “trend” is the same
o Cross-Section (CS)
Assumption: outcome before the programme is the same for treated and controls
Methodology
Ø Two techniques to estimate ATT
o PS Weighting Regression
o PS Matching – Nearest Neighbour
Methodology
Density distribution of PS
Main Results
School Attendance and Promotion Rate
PSW / t / NNM / tAttendance
Total / 0.060 / 5.11 / 0.083 / 6.88
Boys / 0.063 / 3.64 / 0.108 / 5.62
Girls / 0.053 / 3.29 / 0.055 / 2.64
Promotion
Total / 0.043 / 3.22 / 0.071 / 4.67
Boys / 0.052 / 2.76 / 0.096 / 4.18
Girls / 0.034 / 1.95 / 0.036 / 1.46
Main Results
Health indicators
PSW / t / NNM / tHas vaccination card
Total / -0.099 / -2.21 / -0.066 / -1.82
Extreme poor / -0.112 / -1.96 / -0.101 / -2.31
Moderate poor / -0.039 / -0.78 / -0.058 / -0.81
Showed the card
Total / 0.056 / 1.10 / -0.020 / -0.44
Extreme poor / 0.058 / 0.91 / -0.115 / -2.09
Moderate poor / 0.054 / 0.84 / 0.173 / 1.84
Main results
Health indicators
PSW / t / NNM / tHas health insurance
Total / -0.099 / -2.21 / -0.066 / -1.82
Extreme poor / -0.112 / -1.96 / -0.101 / -2.31
Moderate poor / -0.039 / -0.78 / -0.058 / -0.81
Prop. updated immunization
Total / 0.056 / 1.1 / -0.020 / -0.44
Extreme poor / 0.058 / 0.91 / -0.115 / -2.09
Moderate poor / 0.054 / 0.84 / 0.173 / 1.84
Main results
Health indicators
Number of visits to heath centre (ologit)
Total / Extreme poor / Moderate poorProb. / t / Prob. / t / Prob. / t
0 visits / -0.061 / -3.94 / -0.054 / -2.62 / -0.036 / -1.04
1 – 2 visits / -0.060 / -3.80 / -0.063 / -2.51 / -0.014 / -1.04
3 visits / 0.010 / 2.60 / 0.016 / 2.24 / -0.003 / -0.90
4 – 5 visits / 0.038 / 3.78 / 0.042 / 2.52 / 0.008 / 1.00
6 visits or more / 0.072 / 3.87 / 0.059 / 2.52 / 0.045 / 1.05
Impacts on Consumption and Expenditure
log consumption per capita / 0.090 / 2.46 / 0.150 / 3.48
log expenditure per capita / 0.055 / 1.21 / 0.216 / 3.81
log food consumption per capita / 0.059 / 1.51 / 0.124 / 2.63
% no monetary food consumption / 0.031 / 2.09 / -0.008 / -0.42
% food expenditure / -0.041 / -3.39 / -0.032 / -2.10
% expenditure in children’s clothing / 0.030 / 8.84 / 0.024 / 5.33
% expenditure in education / 0.004 / 1.31 / 0.003 / 0.80
% expenditure in health / 0.003 / 0.50 / 0.014 / 1.86
% expenditure in transportation / -0.005 / -1.25 / -0.006 / -1.11
% expenditure in household care / 0.007 / 1.38 / -0.002 / -0.29
Impacts on food basket composition
PSW / t / NNM / tMeat / -0.007 / -0.63 / -0.008 / -0.58
% in total consumption / 0.006 / 0.74 / 0.003 / 0.32
Vegetables and legumes / -0.016 / -1.00 / -0.040 / -2.09
% in total consumption / 0.003 / 0.41 / -0.006 / -0.75
Flavor / 0.017 / 1.25 / -0.007 / -0.49
% in total consumption / -0.011 / -2.37 / -0.017 / -3.17
Dairy products / 0.121 / 4.00 / 0.128 / 3.18
% in total consumption / 0.007 / 1.86 / 0.009 / 1.76
Fruits / 0.048 / 1.56 / -0.020 / -0.51
% in total consumption / 0.016 / 3.15 / 0.014 / 2.09
Candies, sweets or pastries / 0.064 / 4.28 / 0.065 / 3.66
% in total consumption / 0.003 / 2.77 / 0.003 / 1.67
Impacts on income and poverty
PSW / t / NNM / tlog income pc (without transfer) / 0.028 / 0.53 / 0.078 / 1.14
log income pc (with transfer) / 0.317 / 6.59 / 0.365 / 5.83
No poor (without transfer) / 0.039 / 1.82 / 0.067 / 2.12
Moderate Poor (without transfer) / 0.015 / 1.81 / 0.032 / 0.96
Extreme Poor (without transfer) / -0.054 / -1.82 / -0.099 / -2.53
No poor (with transfer) / 0.132 / 5.69 / 0.156 / 4.74
Moderate Poor (with transfer) / 0.034 / 4.69 / 0.058 / 1.79
Extreme Poor (with transfer) / -0.166 / -5.78 / -0.214 / -5.50
Impacts on agriculture activities
Has land for farming / 0.012 / 0.45 / 0.034 / 1.00
log of the actual area available for farming / -0.064 / -0.93 / -0.180 / -2.20
Has orchard / 0.241 / 6.27 / 0.242 / 4.95
Has livestock breeding / 0.060 / 2.68 / 0.061 / 2.19
log of number of birds / 0.174 / 2.46 / 0.206 / 2.35
log of number of pigs / 0.166 / 2.07 / 0.317 / 3.00
log of number of cows / -0.154 / -1.50 / 0.225 / 1.70
Has a single crop as source of income / -0.123 / -2.84 / -0.160 / -3.22
Has multiple crops as source of income / 0.138 / 2.95 / 0.203 / 4.03
Impacts on credit and savings
PSW / Total / NNM / TotalHad access to credit / 0.071 / 2.30 / 0.061 / 1.53
in the grocery store / -0.064 / -2.04 / -0.053 / -1.36
with individuals that do not have a fixed establishment for commercializing their products / 0.020 / 0.72 / 0.008 / 0.24
in the Cooperatives / 0.010 / 0.58 / -0.003 / -0.13
Saving rate / 0.198 / 4.72 / 0.186 / 3.35
Impacts on Labour Supply
Definition I
Total / 0.022 / 0.85 / -0.064 / -2.51
Men / -0.033 / -1.67 / -0.101 / -4.24
Women / 0.064 / 2.00 / 0.015 / 0.38
Definition II
Total / 0.028 / 1.11 / -0.06 / -2.35
Men / -0.019 / -0.99 / -0.097 / -4.18
Women / 0.061 / 1.92 / 0.014 / 0.35
Definition I: does not include temporary workers in the labour force; Definition II: includes.
Other Impacts:
o ICV and its components
o Participation in training courses
o Child Labour and School Attendance as a joint decision
o Identity card
o Social Participation
o Demographic composition
Final Remarks
o besides co-responsibilities, this impact evaluation searched for impacts in indicators related to the decrease of the budget constraint as well as to the work developed by the guias familiares (socio familiar support)
o the schooling co-responsibilities were better understood by families in comparison to health ones
o on the other side, supply side constraints could explain the bad performance in health indicators
o guias familiares have high participation in the effect on the food basket composition changes (talk about healthy diets since is part of their work)
o monitoring was not implemented at the time of the follow-up survey