ACFI Monitoring Report – January2016

Background

  • In 2012-13 and 2013-14 annual real growth of about 3.7% and 3.4% in the daily average ACFI were slightly higher than projections of 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
  • In 2014-15, the annual real growth was 7.4%. This was higher than the projected real growth of 5.6%. Real growth in 2014-15 comprised of two parts – that attributable to the Workforce supplement redirection (projected at about 2.4%) and that attributable to frailty (projected at about 3.2%).
  • In the May 2016 Budget, annual real growth for the 2015-16 year was revised from3.2% to 5.2% to reflect the growth in ACFI expenditure. Indexation was 1.3% implying a nominal growth of 6.5%.

Summary of January2016 Data

Average daily ACFI subsidyfor the period ofJanuary2016 (1 July 2015 to 31January 2016) was $165.02 comparedto a budget of $164.79.

If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 5.2%.This is equal to the budgeted 5.2%.

New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the ACT experienced a real growth higher than the projected national level of 5.3%for the period.

Real cumulative average ACFI growth over the same period in the previous year is 3.8%for ADL, 3.8%for BEH and 9.4% for CHC

Figure 1.Cumulative Monthly Trend of Daily Average ACFI Rates – 2015-16 Yeartodate Actual and Projected, 2015-16 Budget and 2014-15 Actual[1]

Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State

State / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Projected National / $154.43 / $164.79 / 6.7% / 5.3%*
Actual National / $154.43 / $165.02 / 6.9% / 5.5%
NSW / $150.84 / $162.49 / 7.7% / 6.3%
VIC / $156.82 / $168.41 / 7.4% / 6.0%
QLD / $154.27 / $162.68 / 5.4% / 4.1%
WA / $159.48 / $170.22 / 6.7% / 5.4%
SA / $157.94 / $166.57 / 5.5% / 4.1%
TAS / $150.89 / $158.40 / 5.0% / 3.6%
ACT / $152.52 / $164.37 / 7.8% / 6.4%
NT / $155.87 / $162.37 / 4.2% / 2.8%

*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 5.2% relates to the month of the report. In 2016/17 Budget the cumulative growth over the course of the year was revised to 5.2% by 30June2016

Table 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness

Remoteness / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Major Cities of Australia / $158.01 / $168.72 / 6.8% / 5.4%
Inner Regional Australia / $147.06 / $157.55 / 7.1% / 5.8%
Outer Regional Australia / $145.02 / $155.76 / 7.4% / 6.0%
Remote Australia / $131.52 / $130.07 / -1.1% / -2.4%
Very Remote Australia / $133.84 / $143.38 / 7.1% / 5.8%

Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type

Organization Type / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Not-For-Profit / $147.55 / $158.30 / 7.3% / 5.9%
For-Profit / $167.64 / $177.85 / 6.1% / 4.7%
Government / $138.62 / $145.65 / 5.1% / 3.7%

Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size

Provider Size* / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
0-41 / $131.65 / $136.40 / 3.6% / 2.3%
41-74 / $144.17 / $152.81 / 6.0% / 4.6%
74-131 / $149.75 / $160.62 / 7.3% / 5.9%
131-499 / $153.43 / $163.30 / 6.4% / 5.1%
500-999 / $158.65 / $170.52 / 7.5% / 6.1%
1000+ / $160.94 / $170.92 / 6.2% / 4.8%

*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2014-15. Only includes providers active during July 2014.

Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category

Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
ADL / $83.01 / $87.31 / 5.2% / 3.8%
BEH / $25.43 / $26.73 / 5.1% / 3.8%
CHC / $46.00 / $50.99 / 10.8% / 9.4%

Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category

ADL / BEH / CHC
ACFI Level / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Change ADL / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Change BEH / Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016 / Change CHC
H / 48.7% / 53.1% / 4.4% / 59.0% / 62.2% / 3.3% / 45.3% / 55.0% / 9.7%
M / 30.5% / 30.2% / -0.3% / 20.9% / 20.8% / -0.2% / 27.7% / 25.1% / -2.6%
L / 19.4% / 15.8% / -3.6% / 14.0% / 12.0% / -2.1% / 21.7% / 16.2% / -5.5%
N / 1.4% / 0.9% / -0.5% / 6.1% / 5.0% / -1.0% / 5.3% / 3.7% / -1.6%

Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question

Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016
ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 6.1% / 21.5% / 53.9% / 18.5% / 4.5% / 18.6% / 58.8% / 18.1%
Mobility / 3.8% / 6.9% / 37.9% / 51.5% / 2.7% / 5.0% / 36.8% / 55.5%
Personal Hygiene / 0.9% / 8.0% / 12.8% / 78.3% / 0.6% / 6.8% / 11.1% / 81.5%
Toileting / 7.4% / 15.5% / 13.6% / 63.5% / 5.2% / 13.5% / 13.8% / 67.5%
Continence / 18.8% / 3.7% / 5.6% / 71.9% / 16.1% / 3.1% / 5.1% / 75.8%

Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question

Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016
BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 12.0% / 29.2% / 30.9% / 27.9% / 10.4% / 28.3% / 32.8% / 28.5%
Wandering / 74.0% / 7.5% / 4.9% / 13.6% / 77.1% / 6.7% / 4.5% / 11.7%
Verbal / 14.6% / 13.3% / 17.1% / 55.0% / 13.0% / 12.3% / 17.8% / 56.9%
Physical / 27.0% / 14.3% / 15.0% / 43.7% / 25.8% / 14.4% / 16.5% / 43.3%
Depression / 41.7% / 29.4% / 15.1% / 13.8% / 38.6% / 30.1% / 16.1% / 15.2%

Table 9: Cumulative proportion of total days by CHC Scores

Jul 2014 To Jan 2015 / Jul 2015 To Jan 2016
CHC Question / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D
Q11A / 0.88% / 0.33% / 0.82% / 0.14% / 0.63% / 0.24% / 0.94% / 0.17%
Q11B / 4.11% / 7.04% / 7.11% / 6.35% / 2.84% / 5.37% / 7.15% / 8.70%
Q11C / 6.94% / 6.09% / 8.74% / 9.84% / 5.05% / 4.54% / 8.23% / 12.17%
Q11D / 2.89% / 9.63% / 21.49% / 7.61% / 1.84% / 8.00% / 25.35% / 8.78%

Table 10: Actual Average ACFI per day – Monthly and Cumulative

ACFI / Jul 15 / Aug 15 / Sep 15 / Oct 15 / Nov 15 / Dec 15
Monthly ACFI / $163.13 / $163.79 / $164.43 / $165.17 / $165.77 / $166.40
Cumulative ACFI / $163.13 / $163.46 / $163.77 / $164.12 / $164.45 / $164.77
ACFI / Jan 16 / Feb 16 / Mar 16 / Apr 16 / May 16 / Jun 16
Monthly ACFI / $166.56
Cumulative ACFI / $165.02

Figure 2.ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*

*Compares change in proportion of care days for 1 June to 31 January between 2014/15 and 2015/16

[1]Lines represent the cumulative moving averages of the ACFI $ per day for the financial year to date – this is derived by dividing total ACFI claims year to date by the total number of claim days year to date.

The red line is the previous financial year’s actual monthly cumulative average ACFI $ per day (2015-16 prices) from July 2014 to June 2015

The black line is actual cumulative monthly average ACFI $ per day for 2015-16 with the dashed line showing a projection of the actuals

In the 16/17 Budget the Government announced an upward revision to estimated expenditure on residential aged care in 2015-16 and forward years. This increase in expenditure on residential care ACFI is reflected in the blue line. The purple line reflects the previous estimates.