A generic Democratic candidate trails Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen by 10 points (35% to 45% with 20% undecided) in a DCCC poll of FL-27. Ros-Lehtinen leads a Democratic candidate by 6 points among registered Independents (40% to Dems’ 34%, with 27% undecided) and earns the support of 23% of registered Democrats. A generic Democrat trails by 20 points among Latino voters (32% to 52%, with 16% undecided).
Ros-Lehtinen is well-known (69% can rate her) and popular in the district (+21 net, 45% fav, 24% unfav). Latinos have a particularly favorable view of her (+26 net, 50% fav, 24% unfav).
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 7 points (41% to 34%, with 25% undecided). Democrats lead by 4 points among Latino voters (41% to 37%, with 22% undecided) and by 16 points among registered Independents (40% to 24%, with 36% undecided).
In the presidential race, Clinton leads Trump by 23 points(49% to 26%, with 25% undecided). 79% of Democrats support Clinton, while only 52% of registered Republicans support Trump. Clinton leads among Independents by 27 points (44% to 17%) and among Latinos by 17 points (46% to 29%). Clinton has a slightly positive profile (+1 net, 44% fav, 43% unfav) and voters have a strongly negative view of Trump (-50 net, 18% fav, 68% unfav).
When presented with the possibility of Hillary Clinton as the likely elected President, voters were slightly more likely to support a Republican congressperson who would be a check and balance on Clinton than a Democratic congressperson who would be willing to work with Clinton by a net 4 points (40% to 44%, with 15% undecided).
56% of voters approve of Obama’s job performance and 33% disapprove.
About the District: FL-27 is a south Florida district in the Miami area. It is a largely urban (63.6% of total expected vote). 61.6% of the Citizen Voting Age Population in the district is Latino, primarily of Cuban descent. The district’s average household income is slightly above the statewide average. Obama won the district in 2012 (53.3%), and the latest DPI is 52.2%.
Vote Match Ups:
DCCC3/23-25/2016
Generic Dem vs. Ros-Lehtinen:
The Democratic Candidate / 35%
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen / 45%
Undecided/Refused / 20%
Generic Congressional:
Democratic Candidate / 41%
Republican Candidate / 34%
Undecided/Refused / 25%
Presidential Vote:
Democrat Hillary Clinton / 49%
Republican Donald Trump / 26%
Undecided/Refused / 25%
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Favs:
DCCC3/23-25/2016
Fav / 45%
Unfav / 24%
Never heard of/ Unsure / 31%
Fav-to-Unfav Ratio / 1.9 to 1
Hillary Clinton Favs:
DCCC3/23-25/2016
Fav / 44%
Unfav / 43%
Never heard of/ Unsure / 13%
Fav-to-Unfav Ratio / 1.0 to 1
Donald Trump Favs:
DCCC3/23-25/2016
Fav / 18%
Unfav / 68%
Never heard of/ Unsure / 14%
Fav-to-Unfav Ratio / 0.3 to 1
Note: These results are based on a survey of 364 likely FL-27 2016 general election voters conducted by DCCC on March 23-25, 2016. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via a live survey using bilingual callers.