The Magnitude of the Crisis
The most recent (9-25) evidence put the numbers of refugees entering Europe at 8,000 per day, with more than 5,000 per day entering Greece.
A daily flow of about 8,000 Syrian and Iraqi refugees to Europe is likely to continue, the United Nations warns. The figure came from UN regional coordinator for refugees Amin Awad, who spoke to Reuters news agency. More than 5,000 refugees are arriving daily in Greece. That flow could continue during the winter if the weather remains good and the borders open, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) told the BBC. About half a million migrants – mostly from Syria and other conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa – have arrived in Europe this year. BBC
One million are expected to arrive in Europe by the end of the year. This number is not expected to decrease.
As of September 29th, Europe is dealing with approximately one million refugees:
The International Organization for Migration says a record number of people have crossed the Mediterranean into Europe this year, now topping a half a million. As of Tuesday, the group says 522,124 people have traveled by sea to reach the continent this year. Some 388,000 have entered via Greece, more than 175,000 of them from war-torn Syria — the largest single refugee source as a country. Another 6,710 Syrians entered through Italy. IOM estimated that 2,892 people have died trying the crossing — the vast majority of those deaths coming among people seeking to reach Italy via North Africa.[US News & World Report]
Germany alone saw 270,000 refugees in September.
And this is just Europe. These numbers are in addition to the two million that Turkey, 1.1 million that Lebanon [200,000 refugee children to get free schooling in Lebanon], and 800,000 that Jordan have taken in, and as countries and refugees centers/camps in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan became unable maintain support services for the large number of refugees, especially without support from wealthier countries. [Lebanon appeals for more assistance].
Most fled due to unlivable conditions in their own countries, and the massive numbers of refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan is starting to become unsustainable, pushing more and more to Europe.
As noted, most of the refugees are fleeing the civil war in Syria, which is expected to get worse [4 million have left Syria and live in poverty. Syria is Emptying], but many others are also fleeing conflicts in Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan. Many of those who stay in Syria are simply too poor to leave.
More than 4 million people have fled Syria since 2011.
[Washington Examiner]
And where do they end up? Elaine Ayo
As reported by the Washington Examiner on September 30th, the most recent evidence for popular destinations:
All face substantial health risks. Many, including those stranded in refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey, lack adequate food,. Photo journalism story of the crisis.
This crisis could last for decades. And these are just refugees attempting to enter Europe; the number of refugees globally is at the highest point since World War II.
The only thing that’s really slowing them down is the cold weather.
The Crisis Comes to the Forefront
Five issues have recently brought the issue to the attention of the media and foreign leaders.
One, a growing number of people have drowned attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea with the support of smugglers. The humanitarian plight was highlighted by photos of a fully-clothed three-year old boy who drowned and whose body washed ashore. Photos of the dead boy laying on a beach were widely distributed across the Internet.
Tony Munclair, leader of the New Democrats in Canada, “compared the picture of the boy on the beach to the iconic Pulitzer Prize-winning photograph from the Vietnam War of the young girl who was severely burned by napalm.” (Haaretz). [Sad note: ISIS actually uses this photograph to argue that death is punishment for attempting to escape to the West].
The significance of the problem of drowning related to those attempting to cross cannot be underestimated.
The crisis, of course, had been simmering long before April. According to the Geneva-based International Organization for Migration (IOM), some 3,200 people died trying to cross the Mediterranean in 2014. (The number was nearly 2,000 for just the first half of 2015.) Elaine Ayo
Seventeen more died on September 27th. The number of deaths is expected to increase dramatically.
850,000 refugees are expected to cross the Mediterranean between now and the end of 2016. [Greeks despair over drowned refugee children]. Although it was previously possible to pass through Greece by land, Greece’s construction of a border fence has made this impossible, pushing migrants to cross by sea.
At least one report suggests Greece’s Coast Guard may be deliberately cutting the power supply of boats to leave refugees stranded at sea. Greece has taken in 15,000 in a single day.
Two, many refuges who had made their way into Hungry (until it recently (9-15) put up a border fence, Hungry was the primary entry point in the EU for refugees) became stranded at the Keleti train station when Hungarian authorities were not letting trains pass to Austria because the refugees hadn’t first registered in Hungary.
Hungary attempted to forcefully register these 6,000 refugees (It is EU Policy under the Dublin Resolution for migrants to register in the first country they reach), but then provided them, sans registration, with transportation assistance (buses) to reach the Austrian border, where some stayed but most moved on to Germany (mostly Munich, but some to Dortmund and Frankfurt).
This largely happened because the Hungarian government lost control of the situation, has thousands left the train station and surrounding refugee camps and started walking to Austria.
Germany said that this was a one-off exception and Hungary said the same thing about the busing.
Austria is growing concerned about the sheer numbers and plans on lifting the emergency measures that allowed immigrants to cross from Hungary.
Since then, thousands started streaming out of Hungary’s refugee camps toward the Austrian and Germany border. And more and more are pushing their way through restrictions established by the police. Although busing the 6,000 to Austria so that they (mostly) could head on to Germany took the immediate pressure off an explosive situation, it didn’t create any long-term solution because, as noted, the main entry point to the European Union for refugees on foot is Hungary.
Although Hungary let this initial wave of refugees pass, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has taken a hard line against the migrants (hundreds were gathered into what the government called reception centers but local police officers were calling a new “alien holding center”), promised to seal Hungary’s border within days and Hungary and built a long fence along its border with Serbia. Parliament committed to effectively sealing the border by September 15th and succeeded in doing so.
Three, the situation between police and the refugees in many areas has turned violent.
Greece’s migration minister Ioannis Mouzalas has rushed to Lesvos after a second day of street fighting on the Aegean isle. Scenes of stone-pelting refugees engaged in hand-to-hand battle with local police has prompted the government to step up security with two extra units of riot police being dispatched to the island earlier today. Amid renewed violence local officials processing newcomers this morning locked themselves in a container as refugees, once again, vented their anger over delays in registration. On Saturday police resorted to using tear gas and stun grenades as around 500 Afghans attempted to seize and board a ferry heading to Athens. At least four were injured, one seriously. With an estimated 13,000 migrants and refugees on the island – and hundreds arriving every day – the local mayor, Spyros Galanos, described the situation as being “out of control.”(Guardian)
Four, 71 people were found dead in a smuggler’s truck Southeast of Vienna on August 27th.
Five, there are daily complications from the flow of refugees. BBC 9-7:
· Spanish media say police fired rubber bullets at migrants in a detention centre in Valencia after about 50 tried to escape
· Police in Macedonia scuffled with thousands of migrants trying to cross into the country from Greece
· Hundreds of migrants are in a stand-off with Hungarian police on border with Serbia. BBC News producer Imelda Flattery is tweeting from the scene.
How to manage the flow of refugees and what countries will accept them has become a significant policy problem.
The Global Response
Though arguable small compared to the size of the problem, countries of the world have begun responding to the crisis. The UN General Assembly took up the issue at its meetings in New York this week (9-28-10-2), countries have pledged more than a billion dollars to refugee camps in the Middle East, and Europe has agreed to resettle 120,000 refugees. The US and many other countries are increasing the number of refugees they will take, though not by a significant number. [Voice of America].
The private sector is also stepping up, with Facebook teaming up to the UN to offer refugees free Internet. Fedex is stepping up with cash and transportation assistance.
The support for a response varies substantially among individual countries and in this section I will discuss the efforts of individual countries.
The Response of European Countries
Germany
Under the leadership of Chancellor Andrea Merkel, Germany has led the way on refugee resettlement plans on accepting hundreds of thousands more and continues to be welcoming. Germany said it could take500,000+ refugees per year. It has even translated its Constitution into Arabic to help the refugees.
As Europe’s wealthiest country, Germany is arguably the European country most capable of absorbing the costs. [Why Germany Welcomes Refugees]. And since prior to the arrival of the refugees its population was shrinking,
One problem that has developed with the large acceptance of refugees by Germany is that there is a right-wing backlash brewing against the acceptance.
A second problem that is starting to develop is overcrowding in the refugee centers in Germany. This is creating substantial problems within the centers.
An Associated Press survey has found that at least three of Germany’s 16 states have lowered their requirements for refugee shelters, including for the minimum amount of space given to each refugee. Six states had no minimum requirements or said it was up to inspectors to approve conditions on a case-by-case basis. Two didn’t respond. Rights groups warned Tuesday that overcrowding is causing stress in refugee shelters, citing a mass brawl between up to 400 residents at one refugee tent city last weekend. German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has dismissed their concerns, saying “we can’t offer any luxury and we don’t want to offer any luxury.” [US News & World Report].
These two issues have pushed Germany to limit it support for the refugees:
Berlin on Tuesday agreed measures aimed at curbing an unprecedented surge in migrants, including cuts to cash payments, as a backlash grew over the German government’s handling of the refugee crisis. The new laws are aimed at lifting some of the pressures on overworked local officials and reassuring voters that the government is in control of the migrant problem. Berlin wants the laws to take effect as soon as November. Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under mounting pressure, including from within her own CDU/CSU coalition, since she pledged to set “no upper limit” on the right to asylum and promised to accept all refugees from Syria. Officials expects 800,000 refugees this year, four times more than 2014. In a surprise development, Joachim Gauck, German president, who is widely viewed as a liberal, on Sunday launched a thinly veiled attack on Ms Merkel’s handling of the crisis, saying: “Our reception capacity is limited even when it has not yet been worked out where these limits lie.” Cash handouts of €143 a month for a single person are seen as making Germany more desirable for migrants than other European states. Refugees will instead receive non-cash benefits, such as food vouchers. Cash payments for living expenses will largely be stopped for asylum-seekers living in official reception centres. [Financial Times, 9-29]
Most recent (10-2) evidence indicates declining political support. Violence in refugee housing compounds the problem. Germany is simply running up against limits.
Croatia blames part of the current refugee crisis on Germany, claiming that Germany invited the refugees to come but now cannot handle them all. [Empathy and Angst in Germany Transformed by Refugees].
Given the massive number of refugees flowing into Europe, all countries, not just Germany, have started to limit the flow of refugees across their borders (Washington Post, 9-14). The Independent
The strongest opposition to helping more refugees came from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. This is largely driven by the political value of being anti-immigrant, though Poland eventually agreed to take even more refugees than it was originally allocated.
Switzerland
Switzerland has been relatively (like Germany) more open to receiving refugees and has even explored the possibility of housing 50,000 in retired nuclear bunkers.
Hungary
We already know that Hungary sealed its borders, accelerating the construction of a border fence (Hungary now claims to have completed the fence], closing a key point of border entry), and declared a state of emergency. It was also reported that Hungary was forcing refugees to scramble for food and keeping them in cages. On September 22, Hungary passed a law allowing police to use rubber bullets, tear gas grenades, and rubber bullets against refugees. [Inside the Abysmal refugee camps in Hungary].
[As a side note, there is an interesting post here about how it is unfair to single out Hungary for its treatment of refugees when most other countries, especially those without Departments of Homeland Security, would have acted the same way. It also states that the response from “civil society” has been strong and positive. [And:How Hungary’s small Muslim community is helping refugees]].
Recently (9-15), some refugees were detained for attempting to cross the border and others have had water cannons shot at them. Other refugees started a hunger strike in response to the conditions. As it is now a crime to cross the border, new courts have been set-up in Hungary to try refugees who illegally cross the border [US News & World Report].
Recently (9-29), news broke that Hungary will propose a new, global quota system and offer more financial assistance to Middle East refugee camps.