SHOW: Morning Edition 11:00 AM EST NPR

June 28, 2005 Tuesday

LENGTH: 900 words

HEADLINE: Looking for patterns in suicide attacks

ANCHORS: STEVE INSKEEP

REPORTERS: MIKE SHUSTER

BODY:

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

Morning after morning, we've been waking up to news of another suicide attack in Iraq, including the killing of an Iraqi lawmaker just today. On this morning, we're looking for some of the patterns in these attacks. NPR's Mike Shuster has been talking to people who compiled the database of suicide attacks and here's his second report.

MIKE SHUSTER reporting:

The statistics present a grim picture, 20 suicide attacks in 2003, 48 in 2004, 50 in just the first five months of 2005. The work of the Chicago Project on Suicide Terrorism reveals that, since 1980, suicide attacks elsewhere were used to pursue a strategy of national liberation against an overwhelmingly strong enemy occupation force from a democratic nation. According to Robert Pape, who directs the project, preliminary evidence suggests Iraq is no different.

Mr. ROBERT PAPE (Director, Chicago Project on Suicide Terrorism): Iraq is a prime example of the strategic logic of suicide terrorism. Before our invasion in March 2003, Iraq never experienced a suicide terrorist attack in its history.

SHUSTER: More than 75 percent of the suicide attacks in Iraq have been targeted against US or Iraqi military security and government personnel. A quarter of the attacks appear to be against Iraqi civilians unconnected to the US or to the Iraqi government. Some analysts have suggested that these attacks, especially those organized by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist leader affiliated with al-Qaeda, are meant to spark a civil war in Iraq. Pape, who is author of "Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," argues that if that were the case, far more than a quarter of suicide attacks would have targeted civilians exclusively.

Mr. PAPE: Rather, I think, what he's doing is trying to undermine the establishment of a government of Iraq that he sees as being controlled by the United States.

SHUSTER: More than half the suicide attacks have occurred in Baghdad, the seat of government, further evidence that this is the goal. Daniel Byman, a terrorism specialist at Georgetown University, agrees.

Mr. DANIEL BYMAN (Georgetown University): In part, it is designed to get the Americans out, but it's also designed to shape politics in Iraq today. It's designed to say that the government is incompetent and that the insurgents are going to win. When people think that a government cannot protect you, when they think the insurgents are going to win, they're more likely to cooperate with the insurgents and they're less likely to cooperate with the government.

SHUSTER: The Bush administration has been reluctant to accept the view that the insurgency in Iraq uses suicide terrorism for essentially nationalist political goals. But on Sunday, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, speaking on NBC, seemed to acknowledge that US commanders in Iraq are making decisions about the deployment of US troops there to take into account the political perceptions of the insurgents and the wider Iraqi public.

Secretary DONALD RUMSFELD (Defense Department): Right now, General Abizaid and General Casey are absolutely convinced that a heavy US coalition footprint creates the impression of an occupation and contributes negatively to the insurgency and it encourages more people to participate. They are avoiding a large US footprint.

SHUSTER: Historical patterns suggest, according to Robert Pape, that Islamic fundamentalism by itself does not cause suicide terrorism, but that religion becomes a major factor when there is a difference between the religion of the occupying power and the lands under occupation. It may be a little more complicated now in Iraq, says Scott Atran, a terrorism analyst at the University of Michigan.

Mr. SCOTT ATRAN (University of Michigan): Yes, it confirms the thesis that it's a nationalist struggle trying to get a foreigner occupier out. But at the same time, Iraq has become the focus for the global jihadist struggle.

SHUSTER: A sharp profile of who the suicide attackers are has not emerged yet. Most appear to be Iraqi Sunnis or Saudis. Jessica Stern, a Harvard scholar who is author of "Terror in the Name of God," says some may be reluctant to see the end of the US presence in Iraq.

Ms. JESSICA STERN (Author, "Terror in the Name of God"): There are some jihadis who think it's a very good thing that US troops are in Iraq. This is the best possible training that an international jihadi force could ever hope to get.

SHUSTER: Actually, Zarqawi's goals were spelled out quite clearly, says Robert Pape, in a letter that fell into the hands of US intelligence last year.

Mr. PAPE: He says he's going to target the security forces and Western agents in Iraq because they are the eyes, ears and hands of the American occupier. And he says that his worse nightmare, his biggest problem would be if American forces left because then he wouldn't be able to recruit as well suicide terrorists to attack a government which would actually be more legitimate.

SHUSTER: There is not yet enough evidence to determine how much the Iraqi Sunnis and Zarqawi's foreign fighters communicate or coordinate their attacks. They may, in the long run, have different goals, but the evidence so far suggests that their suicide attacks for the most part have the same targets, the US military and the Iraqi institutions that many Iraqis associate rightly or wrongly with the US presence. Mike Shuster, NPR News.

LOAD-DATE: June 28, 2005