Reading articles co-authored by Dominique Bachelet – June 2014

http://consbio.org/people/staff/dominique-bachelet

King, D. A., Bachelet, D. M. and Symstad, A. J. (2013), Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model. Ecology and Evolution. doi: 10.1002/ece3.877

Halofsky, J.E., M.A. Hemstrom, D.R. Conklin, J.S. Halofsky, B.K. Kerns, and D. Bachelet. 2013. Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach. Ecological Modelling 266: 131-143

Could I do a similar assessment of potential impacts on vegetation on farmland in western WA, based on projections by those same 3 climate models? Can Jessica Halofsky’s STM (State and Transition Model) easily generate info on local tree and grass species? Or would I need to get this from another source? Or has someone already done this?

Selecting area(s) of study – review WSU data on which WA regions are biggest producers of which farm products. I’m interested in the future of grass-fed cattle farming, and its dependence on water availability. Changes in water availability having increasing impacts on CA food production. NCA report: note difference between rain-fed and glacier fed water supplies in WA. Rain fed may suffer less (e.g. Chehalis river vs. Deschutes & Nisqually).

Wendy Peterman and Dominique Bachelet (2012) Climate Change and Forest Dynamics: A Soils Perspective, in Issues in Environmental Science and Technology No. 35: Soils and Food Security, eds. Hester and R.M. Harrison, The Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK. (Ch.7: 158-182)


King, D. A., Bachelet, D. M. and Symstad, A. J. (2013), Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model. Ecology and Evolution. doi: 10.1002/ece3.877

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Halofsky, J.E., M.A. Hemstrom, D.R. Conklin, J.S. Halofsky, B.K. Kerns, and D. Bachelet. 2013. Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach. Ecological Modelling 266: 131-143.

We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire built into state-and-transition models can result in increased resistance to climate change, as was the case for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, or increased sensitivity to climate change, as was the case for some shrublands and grasslands in the study area; and (3) vegetation could remain relatively stable in the short term, then shift rapidly as a consequence of increased disturbance such as wildfire and altered environmental conditions. Managers and other land stewards can use results from our linked models to better anticipate potential climate-induced shifts in local vegetation and resulting effects on wildlife habitat.

Wendy Peterman and Dominique Bachelet (2012) Climate Change and Forest Dynamics: A Soils Perspective, in Issues in Environmental Science and Technology No. 35: Soils and Food Security, eds. Hester and R.M. Harrison, The Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK.

Increasing temperatures have been recorded around the world, leading to changes in precipitation, sea-level rise and extreme events. Climate models are currently in use to simulate the effects of these changes on vegetation cover, which is a strong indicator of ecosystem changes in response to various drivers. Climate change, as well as anthropogenic stressors, is affecting forest dieback and tree-species migration. This chapter addresses the connections between changes in various forest types and the global soil carbon, nitrogen and hydrologic cycles, and related feedbacks between these factors and both natural and anthropogenic environmental changes. We discuss the ways these feedbacks between land use, vegetation changes and global nutrient and water cycles can lead to further climate change and soil degradation, which have profound effects on food security, and we conclude by proposing the use of soil characteristics as tools to inform land managers of challenges they may face in preserving valuable services from forested lands and cropping systems.