R16: A briefing/update/overview of the DPI Karen Astles risk assessment project regarding threats from human induced disturbances, including projected timeframes.
The ‘Qualitative Ecological Risk Assessment of Marine Biodiversity in NSW’ project (QERAMB) was initiated in June 2010 and was the culmination of discussions held over several months among Department of Primary Industry researchers and managers working in the areas of aquatic ecosystems and marine protected areas. A working group was formed, chaired by Bob Creese, to progress QERAMB. The working group comprises marine researchers, marine park managers, marine protected areas policy staff and aquatic conservation managers. The collection, collation and analysis of information for QERAMB is led by Karen Astles (who has previous experience in this area; see also 25: Response to R4-5-6 - Managing threats.doc), assisted part-time by a fisheries technician.
The most recent working group meeting was held on 2 November 2011, following which the attached summary was developed. The first 7 steps of phase 1 are nearly complete. Step 8 is the next major activity and it will seek expert input from marine scientists working in NSW, including many affiliated with the Sydney Institute of Marine Science (SIMS).
Qualitative Ecological Risk Assessment of Marine Biodiversity in NSW (QERAMB)
Preamble
Australia has international obligations to conserve biodiversity. Federal and state legislation seeks to enforce these obligations, and strategies have been developed to practically implement them (Australia’s Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-2030; Draft NSW Biodiversity Strategy 2010-2015). The second priority action area in the national strategy is “Building ecosystem resilience in a changing climate” and this has three sub-priority actions areas – protecting diversity, maintaining and re-establishing ecosystem functions and reducing threats to biodiversity. The “core mechanism” by which NSW will provide conservation of marine biodiversity is through the marine reserve system (i.e. marine protected areas) (Draft NSW Biodiversity Strategy 2010-2015, p.97).
Many human activities occur within, or in close proximity to, estuarine and marine ecosystems in NSW. These activities can potentially have direct and indirect effects on marine biodiversity (MB) because they can interact across a complex array of marine and estuarine habitats, ecological processes and species. To effectively protect marine biodiversity, all human activities and their effects on MB need to be identified, assessed, prioritized and issues clearly elucidated. Only then can there be a systematic assessment of how current management regimes, such as marine park zoning plans and coastal catchment action plans, address the issues to reduce the identified levels of risk. The figure below illustrates the evaluation process to be used in this project.
ERA is a tool that will be used to address the questions highlighted in red in the above diagram. At the outset, it is important to recognize that ERA is a means to an end, not an end in itself. For ERA to be useful, prior commitment to work towards implementing the results is required. The qualitative ecological risk assessment (QERA) method developed by NSW DPI to assess commercial fisheries and further developed to assess other human activities on estuarine habitats will be used for the project (Astles et al, 2009, Astles, 2010). It is consistent with AS/NZS 4360.
Within a QERA framework, Risk Context identifies the unacceptable consequences to MB that are to be avoided or mitigated against. Risk Identification identifies the sources of risk to MB. Risk Characterization determines the levels of risk to MB and therefore prioritises MB components and the sources of risk contributing to those components. Issues Arising identifies what needs to be addressed by management and research to reduce risk to MB. These issues can then be used to assess the current management arrangements and research programs to determine whether, and how effectively, these issues are being addressed. The information from these assessments can then be fed back into improving research programs in Marine Parks and NSW coastal ecosystems more broadly. The overall test is whether the improvements identified by QERA actually help conserve MB and provide for the sustainable use of the marine environment or simply ‘re-arrange the deck chairs’.
The QERAMB project
QERAMB will undertake an ecological risk assessment of the effects of human activities on marine biodiversity along the NSW coast.
Aims
1. Identify all sources of risk from human activities to marine biodiversity in coastal NSW.
2. Assess the level of risk to marine biodiversity from the identified human activities.
3. Identify and prioritise the issues that need to be addressed to reduce the level of risk to marine biodiversity
4. Assess how current marine park zoning and other natural resource management regimes in NSW address these issues
5. Recommend appropriate management action and scientific research to enhance the ecological resilience of coastal marine ecosystems to human activities to maintain and /or improve the protection of marine biodiversity in NSW.
Two phases of the project
The project has two phases. The first phase will undertake the risk context and risk identification stages of the QERA at a state-wide level. It will identify which human activities are potential sources of risk to marine biodiversity. It will include breaking human activities into their component stressors. This recognises that one type of human activity may have multiple stressors on an ecosystem. Phase I will systematically document the information used to determine these sources of risk and their stressors. It will also evaluate the scientific information used in terms of its content, spatial and temporal scale and relevance to the NSW marine environment. This phase will not be able to assign levels of risk to these activities.
The second phase will undertake the risk characterisation and issues arising stages, as well as the evaluation of current management plans in the marine, estuarine and catchment environments. This is similar to the process for the environmental impact assessments of the fishery management strategies for NSW commercial fisheries. This phase will be done at the bioregional, marine park, CMA and/or estuarine scale if it is to be useful for evaluating relevant management regimes.
Risk contexts to be assessed
Risk context 1: The likelihood that human activities in NSW will lead to the degradation of marine habitats such that they are unable to support viable marine biodiversity in the next 20 years.
Risk context 2: The likelihood that human activities in NSW will lead to the degradation of ecological processes such that they are unable to support viable marine biodiversity in the next 20 years.
Risk context 3: The likelihood that human activities in NSW will lead to the degradation of populations of marine species/communities such that they are unable to maintain their current abundance and distribution or improve to a more natural condition in the next 20 years.
Risk context 4: The likelihood that human activities in NSW will lead to the degradation of threatened marine species/communities such that they are unable to maintain their current abundance and distribution or improve to a more natural condition in the next 20 years.
Outline of Process and timelines for Phase I
1
Step
1. Clarification of the QERA method and process – Clarify the QERA method being used among researchers to ensure key people understand the approach being taken, the rationale for such an approach, the different types of information required for the study and how this information will be used. Clarify the process to build, analyse and integrate the information.
2. Conceptual model of marine biodiversity - Formulate a working conceptual model of the relationships between the components of marine biodiversity (MB) and the potential influences of human perturbations on them. This is an essential step that will underpin how we identify sources of risks to marine biodiversity. Often in QERA processes these conceptual models are not clearly articulated at the beginning and can be sources of discrepancies among researchers because of differences in their working models of how the components relate to each other. This can be particularly problematic when interacting with stakeholders who have may have a very different understanding of the relationships between human perturbations and marine biodiversity.
3. Conceptual model of human disturbances – Formulate a working conceptual model of the relationship between a human pressure, its stressors, appropriate measures of the stressors and potential outcomes on marine biodiversity. For similar reasons to (1) this is an essential step in determining how and what to identify as the external pressures being exerted on the components of marine biodiversity.
4. Definition of key terms – Define key terms that will be used throughout the project to ensure clarity among researchers, consistency of use and eliminating unhelpful and confusing language. It will also aid in identifying the different types of linguistic uncertainty in the risk characterisation stage and strategies to address these.
Status/Timeframe
Completed
Completed
Completed
(see Diagrams 1 & 2 below)
Being refined
5. Determination of marine biodiversity components – Determine the MB components that will be assessed and how they will be categorised. Determine a preliminary spatial scale for these components (e.g. CMAs)
6. Determine characteristics of resilience of marine biodiversity components – Determine the biological, ecological, geomorphological, biochemical and/or oceanographic characteristics of resilience relevant to each component of MB.
7. Identification of main human activities – Identify the main types of human activities that will be the pressures being exerted on marine biodiversity. These types will form the basis of identifying the appropriate domain expert from which to elicit information about these pressures and their stressors on MB.
8. Determination of knowledge domains and experts – Determine knowledge domains for each human pressure and associated MB components and the domain experts who can provide information on these pressures. Prepare sets of knowledge elicitation questions, tailored for each knowledge domain, and instructions for experts.
9. Elicitation of knowledge from domain experts – Invite knowledge domain experts to provide information. Explain the process to each expert and send them appropriate knowledge sets Provide one-to-one follow-up.
10. Collation and analysis of information from experts – Collate information from all domain experts. Analyse for knowledge gaps, differences and interactions. Prepare an initial risk identification table for each human perturbation interacting with each relevant component of MB. Summarise information and analysis and circulate among all domain experts. Obtain feedback from experts on summary. Assess if a workshop is required to resolved differences and prioritise pressures.
11. Finalisation of risk identification – Based on analysis of information determine the interactions between human pressures and MB components. Prioritise human pressures based on their potential level of influence on MB components.
12. Report on Phase I – Prepare report on the sources of risk to MB components in NSW, including recommendations for Phase II.
Being refined
Being developed
Being refined
To be developed, 3rd week Nov.
3rd week Dec.
1st week Feb., 2012
4th week Feb, 2012
4th week Mar, 2012
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Diagram 1 – Concept map for determining sources of risk
Diagram 2 – A simplified conceptual model of MB & human perturbations
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