2009 School Wrestling Forecast
38h Annual Edition
Division II
103#
Projected Champion: NICK BRASCETTA (GRAHAM)
Top Contenders
2 / McGee (Minerva) / 14 / Tiell (Upper Sandusky)3 / Burkhart (Carrollton) / 15 / Spangler (Keystone)
4 / Langdon (Claymont) / 16 / Lee (Oakwood)
5 / Gould (Lexington) / 17 / Ramos (Bryan)
6 / Graham (West Branch) / 18 / Thompson (Hubbard)
7 / Kazimir (Kenston) / 19 / Edwards (Greenville)
8 / Bertubin (Cambridge) / 20 / Simpson (Clermont NE)
9 / Ward (Goshen) / 21 / Stainbrook (Streetsboro)
10 / Morris (Canton South) / 22 / McGrath (Hamilton Twp.)
11 / Bergman (Oak Harbor) / 23 / Sidoti (Norwalk)
12 / Heavilin (Harrison Central) / 24 / Broska (Walsh)
13 / November (West Geauga) / 25 / Gerber (Clyde)
26 / Gunter (Coventry)
We will almost surely witness a milestone at this weight class in Columbus. The Division II tournament was begun in 1971 as the number of wrestling schools grew to a point where a split needed to be made. The Northeast District quickly piled up a lead in terms of number of champions, but the Central District always sent a strong contingent of wrestlers. At that time you hoped to draw into someone from the Southwest District. At one point the Central District had provided 24 champions to just 2 for the Southwest. Later that margin increased to a 43 to 18 differential. However, beginning in the 1990’s that balance of power shifted. If Brascetta prevails as anticipated, it will give the Southwest District its 71st individual title, one more than claimed by the Central District.
Brascetta was 3rd last year at this weight class, losing only to state champion Mitch in the semi-finals. His other four victories were all completed in convincing style, including a 10-5 win over Romanchik in the consolation finals. This year he opened with a sensational run at the Ironman, which concluded with a 6-3 win over the nation’s number one ranked 103-pounder Mark Grey. He did not have to go six minutes in any bout at the GMVWA and won by technical fall against the highly regarded Gould at the Ohio Duals. As we saw, it was more of the same at the Top Gun with Brascetta totally dominating every opponent. At this moment no serious challenge would seem to exist for him at the Division II (or any other) level.
Some of the top contenders for the spot opposite Brascetta in the finals will emerge from the Firestone District. Foremost, in this group is Cody McGee who was 5th last year beating Burkhart 4-2 in that bout. He won this year at Smithville and was 4th at the Top Gun. Sometimes a wrestler’s losses can bring him into the foreground quicker than a dozen inauspicious victories. So it is with West Branch newcomer, Dustin Graham – a good name to have this year. He was 2nd at the Riverside Rumble, but what caught my eye was that he lost in the final round to Division I third-place finisher, Uland Ralston, by only 4-2. Shortly thereafter he defeated Division II place-winner Burkhart by that same score. He was 4th at the Dies as reality struck back but, clearly, he’s a real threat. State qualifier Thompson entered last year’s districts with a losing record, dropped his first bout, and then reeled off four straight wins to qualify. He was still at 112# at the Top Gun this year, but I think he’ll have to be at this weight class if he wants a return ticket to Columbus – and even that will not be assured here. State alternate Morris was 5th at North Canton, but has lost to McGee by five. That’s four possibilities, but Graham is inexperienced and Thompson looks possibly vulnerable which could open the door for Kazimir and November. Kazimir lost to Labry, 1-0, in the Solon finals (note Labry defeated Graham by 3), but has been plagued by injury problems. He won two district bouts last year and lost a narrow bout to McGee, 2-0. November beat Harrington to win at Perry and was 3rd at Kenston after an upset loss. Add in Stainbrook, Broska, and Gunter and this will be an extremely competitive district.
The other strong district is at Heath. Both finalists return at this weight class as does the 4th place finisher. Burkhart was the dominating figure winning the finals 11-1 and then going on to place 6th in Columbus. This year he was 2nd at North Canton and lost the dual to Graham, but has otherwise been very strong. He has finalist potential. Bertubin was the district runner-up and was the center of attention at Value City Arena when he wrestled Dustin Carter in what had to be a difficult first round bout. He beat Thompson in the consolation, but ended one bout from placement. He has been at 112# virtually the entire season, but will compete at this weight class starting with the OVAC. Heavilin, the third returning state qualifier, had a tough draw in Columbus losing to Brascetta and McGee in back-to-back bouts. He was 2nd at Barnesville this year, and should qualify once more. They’ll all have to worry about the freshman Langdon (3rd at Junior High States), who was 3rd at Medina--and one point from being in the finals—placed at the Top Gun, and was a one point loser to Gray at the Ironman. Only Burkhart and (maybe) Bertubin can go with him here. I don’t see much else at this district with Maynard, McGrath, and McGhee possibilities.
There are no returning state qualifiers at Fostoria in a weight class that should be dominated by one wrestler, senior John Gould. The igniter for a wonderful Lexington team that, to outsiders, seemed to emerge overnight, he has real finalist potential. He was at 103# at a sophomore, and, if memory serves, just missed state qualification. Last year he was pushed up to 112# by the arrival of state placer Gambucci, but has now returned to this weight class. He has pretty much crushed everybody, losing only to Brascetta, 21-5, at the Ohio Duals. If nothing else, that defines the gap at this weight class. State alternate Tiell also returns and will battle with folks like Perrysburg and Oak Harbor champ Alex Bergman, Sidoti, and Gerber. Dark horse candidates for state places might be Ramos or Spangler, but no one here, except Gould, will be a major threat at States.
That same conclusion also applies to Goshen. Brascetta is great, but no one else can probably hope for more than a very low place, with the possible exception of the freshman Ward. Highly touted at the onset of the season, he has been very good. He beat GMVWA place winner Edwards 15-3 in their dual meet. Edwards defeated Simpson who won two district bouts last year, while Lee was 2nd at Troy and 3rd at Bellbrook. This trio will likely battle for the last two state slots.
112#
Projected Champion: TY MITCH (AURORA)
Top Contenders
2 / Jordan (Graham) / 15 / Beemer (Wapakoneta)3 / Westfall (Perry) / 16 / Hutchins (Canal Winchester)
4 / B.Miller (Defiance) / 17 / Harting (Kenton Ridge)
5 / McLaughlin (Canal Fulton NW) / 18 / Stevens (Carroll)
6 / A. Miller (Beaver Local) / 19 / Simpson (Salem)
7 / Mirman (Padua) / 20 / Colvin (London)
8 / Romanchik (Padua) / 21 / Brooks (Benedictine)
9 / Warner (Claymont) / 22 / Thurn (Clyde)
10 / Stone (Oak Harbor) / 23 / Hupp (West Branch)
11 / Gambucci (Lexington) / 24 / Johnson (Logan Elm)
12 / Wiltshire (Buckeye Local) / 25 / Webb (Miami Trace)
13 / Hayes (Ravenna) / 26 / Parsons (Licking Valley)
14 / Jacobs (Oakwood
Moving up from 103# to 112# is very often a treacherous climb. Not only are there weight and strength issues, but age and experience factors (often sophomore versus senior) can play a major role. Since 2000, 23 underclassmen have won state titles at 103#. Of that number only nine repeated as champion the next year, or 39%. However, two of those repeat winners competed at 103# the next year, so that the true percentage of success for those moving up at least one weight class was 7 of 21 – just 33%. That is not to say that some of these 4 non-repeaters did not win state titles later in their careers, but that just 33% did so in the very next year.
Those are the odds that face state champion Ty Mitch (and Sako and Stieber, as well). And, indeed, this weight looks like a remarkably even, three way battle for the top spot giving Mitch about a 33% chance of winning. However, I think the odds may be just a little better than that. He is a strong and resilient wrestler who has proven resourceful in times of crisis. His battles with Johnni DiJulius last year proved he could bounce back from a defeat one weekend and win the next. He also has a canny (if old) coach who is probably worth a point or two on the side of that mat. This year he lost twice to freshmen at the Ironman – once to Squire (by two) and once to Jordan (by one). At Brecksville he was 4th, losing a semi-final overtime thriller to Squire and a close consolation battle to Robinson. He could have won any of those early season bouts. Last year it was just Mitch and DiJulius, no one else was close. This year there will be many more contenders, so those overtime losses will have to be converted into wins. I think that will occur as Mitch will go one up on his grandfather in terms of state titles.
The Jordan family, fathers and sons, have done rather well at state tournaments. I have them at 47-1 including eleven state titles. If they had been a high school, that would rank them 34th in Ohio history. Isaac Jordan will surely add to that total – the question is whether it will begin this year. A Junior High State champion last year, he failed to place at that brutal Ironman weight class, but did defeat Mitch. And, besides, that was his first weekend of varsity experience (just for the record David Taylor also lost his first varsity weekend). Since then he has crushed everyone, winning the GMVWA with huge scores and defeating Westfall, 7-1, at the Ohio Duals. He is getting ever more comfortable on the mat and that is not a good sign for his opponents. Mitch will want to meet him late on Saturday when he could have a size advantage.
The third primary contender for the state title is Nate Westfall. It seems that he has been with us for a decade and this is, indeed, his senior season. He is a three-time state placer and two-time state semi-finalist who has always drawn tough foes in his career. Last year he beat A. Miller and B. Miller in the first two rounds at this weight class, but, unfortunately, there was no C. Miller in the semi-finals only D. Taylor. With well over 100 career wins Westfall will exit the same district as Mitch. They should then be apart at Columbus and should Jordan draw into Mitch it would give Westfall a great shot at wrestling Saturday night.
Mitch and Westfall are part of a district weight class at Firestone that has four state placers and very little else. McLaughlin is a two time state qualifier who cashed in last year with a 7th place finish. This year he was at 119# for the longest time, but finally moved down for the Dies. Matched up against a representative field he took the title beating Mirman, 6-5. He should place again this year. The fourth state placer is Hayes, who was 4th two years ago for CVCA. I saw him at Solon, but he was injured at that meet and has not yet reappeared. He seems problematical at this district. If so, the fourth slot is wide open with Simpson, Hupp, and Brooks possible contenders.
Jordan faces a field that is a clear step below him at Goshen. Stevens was the district runner-up last year at 103# before losing by technical fall in the finals. He won three bouts at States to finish a solid 7th. This year he was also 7th at the GMVWA, but met Jordan (who must have not been seeded) in the second round and lost 12-4. Jacobs was a state alternate last year, while Harting was a district quarter finalist. Both have improved. Harting was 3rd at Troy and 6th at GMVWA, beating Stevens, 11-3, in a consolation bout. Jacob was 3rd at Bellbrook and 2nd at Troy ahead of Harting. This suggests both may have passed Stevens. Johnson has been a finalist in at least three tournaments and seems best from the southeast. Webb, also from that area, may also get in the picture.
The deepest strongest district is undoubtedly at Fostoria. There are two state placers, two state qualifiers, with at least four other first wrestlers in the mix. It is from this group of district qualifiers that upsets may be hatched. Also part of the forecasting problem is that two or three of these wrestlers are still deciding whether to wrestler here or at 119#. For purposes of clarity I’ve placed Cook and Schneider at 119# since they have been there all year and I have no definitive evidence they’ll be down at this weight class. Also remember that this district is fed by three northwest sectionals and one northeast sectional.
In this case, I think two of the better wrestlers are both from the northeast sectional. Romanchik was the district champ at 103# last year beating Gambucci in the finals 12-2. He was a state semi-finalist before losing to DiJulius and Brascetta and finishing 4th. This year he was 5th at Brecksville losing only to Squire and Robinson. He did, however, have a disappointing CIT. Mirman was a district semi-finalist, but had to forfeit his second day bouts. This year he was just recently a one-point loser to McLaughlin in the Dies final. Gambucci was 8th last year and has spent much of the year at 119#. He won at Coffman and the Gorman, and should qualify once more. It looks like Stone, a state qualifier two years ago, will represent Oak Harbor at this class instead of Cramer. He won at 119# at Oak Harbor and placed at Medina and has the experience and talent to be good at this lower weight class. That’s four excellent wrestlers, but it ignores the returning district champion at this weight, B. J. Miller. He had very little trouble winning here in 2008 and went to States with a 42-0 record. A quarterfinal loss by major decision put him into the consolations where he finished 8th. I do worry about his relatively weak schedule. Add in Beemer and Thurn and this is an outstanding district weight class.