The July Crisis
General Background
World History
Mr. Hannigan
April, 2011
The July Crisis: Can you stop the Great War?
"The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."
Sir Edward Grey
On June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, was assassinated while visiting Sarajevo in Bosnia-Herzegovina by Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip, a member of the Black Hand society. The Austrian government blamed Serbia for harboring terrorists and sent the Serbian government an ultimatum with which that country found it impossible to comply. This set into a motion series of alliances. During the month July, European diplomats debated whether to engage in a war to obtain certain long sought goals, colonies, and justify a huge military buildup. By the end of July all of Europe was poised on the edge of war.
TELEGRAMRECEIVED: 30 JULY, 1914
THE NATIONS OF EUROPE ARE ON THE VERGE OF WAR WHICH WILL INVOLVE US ALL. THIS WAR CAN BE PREVENTED. WE URGE ALL DELEGATIONS TO ATTEND THE PEACE CONFERENCE CONVENING IN BRUSSELS.
ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR YOUR DELEGATION TO MEET IN BRUSSELS ON JULY 31, 1914. IN ORDER TO EXPEDITE THIS CONFERENCE, IT IS IMPERITIVE THAT YOU PREPARE THE FOLLOWING PRESENTATION FOR THE OTHER DELEGATES:
1. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR COUNTRY INCLUDING A MAP, BRIEF HISTORY, AND ALLIANCES.
2. LONG TERM REASONS EXPLAINING WHY YOU MAY FEEL FORCED INTO WAR.
3. RECENT OR SHORT TERM EVENTS IN THE PAST MONTH THAT YOU FEEL ARE FORCING YOUR COUNTRY INTO WAR.
4. YOU SHOULD ALSO OUTLINE YOUR PEACE PROPOSAL WHICH YOU WILL AUGMENT AFTER THE OTHER DELEGATIONS MAKE THEIR PRESENTATIONS.
MINISTER OF FOREIGN RELATIONS
KINGDOM OF BELGUIM
Task
The date is July 30, 1914 and the situation is critical when you receive the above telegram. You are a diplomat for one of the countries involved in the origins of World War I. Austria-Hungary has already declared war on Serbia after receiving reassurance from Germany of full support. Because of the alliance system, this war is not destined to remain a small, regional flare up. Russia and Germany are about to declare war because the Russian army has been mobilized at the German border. Germany has plans to attack France through neutral Belgium, and Great Britain has sworn to protect Belgium's neutrality. Belgium is trying to make one last effort to bring the interested countries together to avoid war.
The Process
Step1: Your team is a diplomatic advisory group representing one of the following:
Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany, France, Great Britain, Russia, Italy, and Ottoman Empire. Each country's team of diplomats will meet in neutral Belgium on July 31,1914. In order to prepare for the peace conference, you and your team must research and make an oral presentation with visuals on the following topics as stated in the telegram:
· Background about your country including: a brief history, geographic location, alliances, and leaders
· Long term reasons explaining why your country is willing to risk going to war (events more than a year ago)
· Short term reasons explaining why your country is willing to risk going to war (events within the last year)
All students should take notes on these three topics: background, long term reasons, and short term reasons in their journals.
Step 2: After your group has made a presentation representing your country's point of view on these topics and studied the information given by the other countries, you will prepare and present a proposal to prevent the war. Take into account all that you have learned from the presentations of other countries, and try to formulate an agreement that will prevent the war by presenting a valid compromise. This proposal should obtain for your country what it really wants and make some concessions to other countries
Step 3: After your country has presented its peace proposal, the class will divide up into 4 groups with at least one representative from each country in each group. In these new peace negotiation groups, start by voting on the proposals from each country. Because some countries are more powerful than others, some countries will receive more votes: Germany (3), Great Britain (3), France (2), Russia (2), Serbia (1), Ottoman Empire (1), Austro-Hungarian Empire (2), Italy (1) . Any country may abstain from voting. Modify the proposal with the most votes until you reach a consensus. If you do not reach a consensus in 45 minutes, you will write out a declaration of war stating the reasons why you are going to war.
Learning Advice
Remember that the causes of war go beneath the surface of what countries publicly say and write. Often they have hidden agendas. Each country wants something, and they may use their alliance with another country as an excuse to pursue their real goals. Ask yourself, what is your country’s real goal(s)?
When you read the primary source documents, ask yourself these questions:
· Who wrote the document and does the author have a bias?
· For whom is it written and why?
· Did the author create it for a particular cause?
· Was it written by an eyewitness?
· Was the document translated and could the translation affect the meaning of the document?
· What kind of document is it and who was meant to see it?
· What was happening when this document was written?
· When you prepare your peace proposal, make sure that you offer something to your enemies. What are you willing to compromise and/or allow to change so that the other country can 'save face.' List your main points succinctly.
1879-1914: The Deadly Alliances
In order to understand exactly what went wrong back in the summer of 1914 we will examine the key alliances that occurred between 1879 and 1914. These interlocking "defense" treaties, once tripped, would bring the mighty armies together on a collision course that no one could stop.Please note that not all alliances are listed here. There's too many and this is a history of the First World War, not 19th century Europe.
1879 to 1918 / The Dual Alliance
/ Austria-Hungary
Germany
Bismarck wanted to protect Austria-Hungary from possible Russian aggression. Relations betweenRussia and Austria-Hungary had soured as a result of Russia attacking Turkey and imposing the Treaty of San Stefano. The Austro-Russian understanding of 1873 had fallen victim to upheaval in the Balkans.
In protecting Austria-Hungary from Russia, Germany was looking out for her own interests. If Austria-Hungary were ever to fall then the Russians would be at the German door. This was an actual defensive alliance on the part of Germany.
1881 to 1887 / Three Emperor's League
/ Austria-Hungary
Germany
Russia
This was an attempt to restore stability to eastern Europe by bringing Russia into the fold of the Dual Alliance. It was not to be successful as Austro-Russian problems flared again with the Bulgarian Crisis of 1886-7.
1881 to 1895 / Austro-Serbian Alliance / Austria-Hungary
Serbia
Once again Russia is the motivation for an alliance. This time it is to try to limit possible Russian influence in the Balkans.
1882 to 1915 / The Triple Alliance
/ Austria-Hungary
Germany
Italy
This strategic alliance was formed for the express purpose of stopping Italy from attacking Austria-Hungary in the event of war with Russia. Bismarck's Reinsurance Treaty with Russia was an attempt to avoid this seemingly inevitable war.
1883 to 1916 / The Austro-German-Romanian Alliance / Austria-Hungary
Germany
Romania
Similar in concept to the Serbian Alliance, this again was motivated by perceived Russian intentions in the Balkans. Those Russians!
1894 to 1917 / Franco-Russian Alliance
/ France
Russia
This major lasting alliance was the Russian reaction to several events of the day:
· New German Chancellor Caprivi drops the Russian Reinsurance Treaty
· Germany renews The Triple Alliance
· Germany also gets friendly with the "Mediterranean Entente" (Britain, Italy and Spain against Russia and France)
However by 1895 Germany had realized that it could profit from it's relations with Russia and France, and things settled down among the powers.
1902 to 1913 / Russo-Bulgarian Military Convention / Bulgaria
Russia
Bulgaria, newly independent from the Ottoman Empire, allies itself with Russia in an attempt to ward off the possibility of Austro-Hungarian aggression.
1904 to 1918 / The Entente Cordiale
/ France
Great Britain
This agreement between Great Britain and France was more a sign of healing relations than an actual alliance. The Triple Alliance powers took note.
1907 to 1917 / The Anglo-Russian Entente
/ Great Britain
Russia
Great Britain and Russia, having settled their differences, take this final step toward the Triple Entente.
1907 to 1917 / The Triple Entente / Great Britain
France
Russia
This alliance arose from the prior ententes between these three powers and as a reaction to:
· Worsening relations between Germany and Great Britain due to the Naval arms race (see Tirpitz Plan)
· Germany's attempt to exploit the Russian loss of the Russo-Japanese War of 1905
This final alliance drew the lines for the war that would follow. Germany's worst fears of encirclement were realized and a two front war had been made a certainty.
Assassination in Sarajevo – June 28, 1914
"Some damn foolish thing in the Balkans,"This was Bismarck's prophecy as to what would set off the seemingly unavoidable European war. He had hit the nail directly on the head. The Balkans of 1914 were a hotbed of nationalistic intrigue. The Bosnian Serbs inhabiting the southern Austro-Hungarian provinces of Bosnia-Herzogovina wanted to be united with their brothers living across the Drina (Dunav) in Serbia proper. Austria-Hungary, having officially annexed Turkish Bosnia-Herzogovina in 1908, was not about to let go of it. Maybe an act of supreme defiance would convince Vienna otherwise; maybe the dream of a greater Serbia could be realized by such an act.
An assassination of Emperor Franz Josef was out of the question. He was well respected throughout the empire and his heir's politics were even worse for Serbian cause than his own. The heir to the Hapsburg throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, was in favor of giving an equal voice to the Slavs of the empire - a belief counter to the very core of the Serb cause.1 The Archduke was also Inspector General of the Austrian army. The summer maneuvers would bring him into the area and diplomacy would ordain a visit to Sarajevo on June 28th, St. Vitus Day, a Serbian holiday. It seems fate had decided the act.
1While this may sound contradictory, it should be noted the common belief was that if the Slavs within the Austro-Hungarian empire were appeased, the chance of an insurrection would be greatly reduced, and consequently, the goal of a greater Serbia would never be realized.
Prologue
28-Jun-1914 in Sarajevo was a typical summer day in the Balkans - blistering. For the Serbs it was St. Vitus day. It memorialized the Battle of Kosovo in 1389 where the Serbs were defeated by Turkey. The Serbs would mark the day with a feast.
It was also a special day for Archduke Franz Ferdinand - it was his 14th wedding anniversary. He would make it a special day for his wife Sophie. In Vienna she, not being of royal enough blood, was not allowed to ride in the same car with her husband during high affairs of state. But this was Sarajevo. Here, on their anniversary, she would be afforded all the royal treatment of which she was deprived at home. The Duchess of Hohenburg would most certainly ride in the car with her husband today.
To seven tubercular Bosnian Serb youths, 28-Jun-1914 would be the day they made their mark for the Serbian cause - a mark that would ultimately be left on the entire world.
The Assassins
"The Narodna Odbrana proclaims to the people that Austria is our first and greatest enemy."
The group of seven ranged in age from 19 to 27. Only one had a police record which was only for striking a teacher. They were all members of the secret Serbian nationalist movement Mlada Bosna ("Young Bosnia"). All had tuberculosis, a death sentence in 1914.
· Nedjelko Cabrinovic
· Vasco Cubrilovic
· Trifko Grabez
· Danilo Ilic
· Mohammed Mehmedbasic
· Cvijetko Popovic
· Gavrilo Princip
Their training and arms came from Belgrade's "Union or Death" terrorist league. This faction of the Serbian "Black Hand" was under the leadership of a "Colonel Apis" (the bee), whose real identity was Colonel Dragutin Dimitrievitch, no less than the head of Serbian military intelligence. The assassins returned to Sarajevo on Jun-3 with pistols, bombs and cyanide to await the visit of the Archduke.
Security Arrangements
The diplomatic teletype had been busy clicking out warnings from consulates all over the world. The messages were clear: the Archduke would be wise to cancel his planned visit to Sarajevo. In Vienna, Serbian ambassador Jovan Jovanovic (acting on orders from Prime Minister Pasic) visited Austrian finance Minister Bilinski to warn that if the Archduke should visit then:
"some young Serb might put a live round instead of a blank cartridge in his gun, and fire it."
Belinski replied:
"Let us hope nothing happens,"