GLOBAL E NERGY , ECONOMICS AND G EO POLI TIC S
PAI 700 - 2 SUMMER 14
SYL L ABUS FOR MAXWELL SCHOOL
SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY
OVERVIEW
This course will provide a sound basis for understanding the interaction of global energy concerns with evolving economic and geopolitical issues. Energy is central to major international issues, including Russia’s relationship with Ukraine and Europe, growth in China or India, Middle East politics and relations with the west or the development goals of diverse nations such as Nigeria, Bolivia, or Venezuela. The course will examine United States energy policy and the complex choices confronting today’s policymakers. We also will take an in-depth look at policies proposed by the administration of President Barack Obama. We will examine in depth international oil and gas markets focusing on specific geographic regions and countries (both producing and consuming) and the political, economic and social issues associated with energy development or use.
President Barack Obama wants to move the United States away from its dependence on foreign oil to a more “green” energy economy. We will discuss what this means and what the Obama Administration is doing to achieve its goals. With transportation the major user of oil, the course will examine the options available for changing the use of oil as a transportation fuel. How have hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling altered views on energy security and energy independence? Should the United States export natural gas or crude oil? These issues are central to the current political climate and we will explore why they are important and what is being proposed. The course will look at many current issues including the debate over the use of hydrocarbons versus renewable energy; the development of alternative energy sources; the future of nuclear power; the impact of energy on the environment; the importance of energy needs for developing countries; and the rise of China and India as dominant energy producers/consumers. This will be a course with broad scope that explores cutting edge issues for today’s world.
SEMINAR GOALS
As a result of taking this course the student should be able to understand current issues in global and regional energy markets. In addition, the student should be able to understand and discuss policy options available to policymakers as they confront complicated choices regarding economics, politics and social issues.
FORMAT
The course will follow a seminar discussion format with sessions taught in an interactive manner. Student participation will be expected. Guest speakers drawn from the Washington energy community will be an integral part of the course.
GRADING
Each student will be expected to write a 10-12 page memorandum on a specific subject, issue, or geographic area. Class participation will be considered and can count as much as 20 percent in evaluating each student’s performance and grade.
COURSE READING MATERIALS
Most reading materials will be posted on Blackboard in advance of each session. Students are expected to be familiar with these materials. A recent book is now available that will be referenced throughout the course; students should purchase this book as it is the best, current text covering most of the subjects covered in the course. It is, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, Daniel Yergin, Penguin Press, 2011.
ADVANCED READING
Excellent preparation for this course is a recent publication by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), New Energy, New Geopolitics: Balancing Stability and Leverage published in April 2014. It is available at www.csis.org under publications.
CLASS HOURS: TUESDAY Evening: 6:00 pm to 8:40 pm ; THURSDAY Evening: 6 : 0 0 pm to 8 : 4 0 pm .
MAY 2 7 , 29, J UNE 3, 20 1 4 : SESSION 1: ENERGY FUNDAMENTALS
· Introduction to energy – what is it, where is it found, how is it supplied and how is it used
· Overview of oil, gas, electricity, nuclear, coal, renewable industries
· Overview of supply and demand issues
· Overview of U.S. and international issues
· Reading/Resources: Required reading: The Quest, Introduction and Prologue. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration website: www.eia.gov. At home page, go to Learn About En ergy and click on Energy Explained . At Energy Explained read each section starting with What is Energy?, and put special emphasis on the major sections of Nonrenewable Sources, Renewable Sources, and Secondary Sources of energy use and profiles for each energy sector under each heading. Become familiar with EIA’s 2014 Annual Energy Outlook by reading the Executive Summary released in Spring 2014 and EIA’s 2013 International Energy Outlook released in July 2013 (available at same EIA website under Outlooks located in box on the right of the home page); World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency at www.iea.org.
· Guest speakers: May 29, Paul Holtberg, Director, Energy Statistics, speaking on Annual Energy Outlook and June 3, Linda Doman, Leader on International Energy Markets, speaking on International Energy Outlook both from the Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
JUNE 5 , 10 , 20 1 4 : SESSION 2 : OIL AND GAS MARKETS
· International oil and gas markets, an in depth discussion – peak oil, plateau, growth scenarios
· Geographical concentrations for producing countries
o Middle East, Europe and Russia, Central Asia/Caucasus. Africa, Latin America
· Geographical concentrations for consuming countries
o Europe, Asia (China, Japan, S. Korea), South Asia (India)
· Development issues in emerging market producing countries
o Norwegian model compared to other producing countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
o Moral hazard issues – corruption, squandering resources, Dutch disease
· Reading/Resources for Oil and Gas: The Quest, Part One, The New World of Oil. Aspen Reports, copies available and on web site, www.aspeninstitute.org/ee; Reading Materials: NY Times, “End of Oil”; Hirsch, “The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production”; EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, www.eia.gov.
· Guest Speaker: June 5, Mary Barcella, Head of Natural Gas, IHS/CERA on gas markets; June 10, Tyler Tiller, Department of Energy on Russian energy.
JUNE 12, 2014: SESSION 3: ENERGY SECURITY
· Renewed focus on energy security
· Consuming/producing country perspectives
· Institutions and instruments: International Energy Agency, stocks, demand restraint
· Reading/Resources for Energy Security: The Quest, Part Two, Securing the Supply. Reading Materials: Goldwyn, Morse and Patron, “Building Long Term Energy Security: Seize the Moment”, Yergin, “Ensuring Energy Security” in Foreign Affairs; Yergin, “The Fundamentals of Energy Security”; “Nervous Energy”, from The Economist; “Special Report: European Energy” from The Economist; Aspen reports.
· Guest Speaker: David Goldwyn, Principal, Goldwyn Energy Strategies.
JUNE 17, 2014: SESSION 4: DISCUSSION
JUNE 1 9 , 2014: SESSION 5 : U.S. ENERGY POLICY AND OBAMA ENERGY POLICIES
· Energy policy through Bush Administration with the Energy Policy Acts of 2005-06-07.
· Infrastructure issues, refining, natural gas and liquefied natural gas and electricity
· Supply policies versus demand policies
o Opening new areas for production – Alaska, offshore US, Rocky Mountains
o Demand driven policies – energy efficiency, CAFE
· Emergence of a North American market in energy including the role of Canada and Mexico and the role of Canadian tar sands and Alberta gas
· Unconventional Natural Gas Development—a revolution in natural gas markets
· Hydrocarbons versus alternatives
· Environmental controls: carbon tax versus cap and trade
· Nuclear
· Energy, trade, democracy, human rights
· Reading/Resources: The Quest, Parts Five and Six, New Energies, and Road to the Future. See www.npc.org, latest report of the National Petroleum Council, Facing the Hard Truths about Energy. National Energy Policy Statement, May 1991 on Blackboard; Energy Policy Act of 2005, see www.en.wi k ipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_Act_of_2005; Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007; www. g ovtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-6&tab=summary, Reading Materials: “Comments and Observations on the Topic of U.S. Energy Independence” in Reading Materials. www.whitehouse.gov, see Agenda: Energy and the Environment, Read, Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future, March 30, 2011 under topic heading, A Secure Energy Future. See also, A New Foundation, for additional statements on energy and the environment by President Obama. See also, www.nga.org, website for the National Governors Association and search Environment, Energy or Natural Resources for policy statements and reports; www.edisonfou n dation.net, home page for Institute for Electric Efficiency, see reports; and www.epr i .com, home page for Electric Power Research Institute, see reports.
JUNE 24, 2014: SESSION 6 : ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION
· Oil use in transportation – two thirds of oil goes to transportation
· Problems: slowing of efficiency gains; trends in vehicle sales (SUVs and light trucks)
· Proposed solutions: bio-fuels, hybrids, fuel cells
· Reading/Resources: The Quest, Part Six, chapter 35, The Great Electric Car Experiment. See website for The International Clean Council on Clean Transportation: www.theicct.org. Aspen reports; Reading Materials: Sandalow, “Ending Oil Dependence” from The Brookings Institution.
· Guest Speaker: Representative from Toyota.
JU NE 2 6 , 201 4 : SESSION 7 : ELECTRICTY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY
· Focus on latest developments in electricity markets and the development of renewable energy.
· The Quest, Part Three, The Electric Age, pp. 345-416.
· Guest Speaker: To be Announced.
JU LY 1 , 201 4 : SESSION 8 : ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY ISSUES
· Discussion of cap and trade legislation.
· Carbon tax.
Reading/Resources: The Quest, Part Four, Climate and Carbon. se.gov. Search site for March 31, 2009 media advisory announcing Chairmen Waxman, Markey release discussion draft of new Clean Energy legislation: American Clean Energy & Security Act of 2009 and discussion draft summary. Also: www.epa.gov/climatechange, see under Economic Analysis, EPA’s discussion of the Waxman-Markey legislation.
· Visit to Environmental Group to be arranged.
JULY 3 , 201 4 SESSION 9 : DISCUSSION AND RETROSPECTIVE
· Review of course material
· Discussion of any outstanding questions
JULY 31, 2014 : PAPER DUE
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