ELECTION PROJECT 2016 DUE DATE: Nov. 2 A Day or 3 B Day

The objective: Students will be able to accurately predict the outcome of a U.S. Senate or U.S. House election after researching and analyzing a variety of election and campaign information.

For the state assigned, students will research and follow the campaigns of opposing candidates. The following information must be acquired using a variety of primary sources: suggested websites, state and national newspapers, national magazines, and television and internet news sources. Each campaign is unique due to the people running and the concerns of the people in the state where the election is occurring. Projects are expected to be thorough but objective and neutral.

Projects will be turned in to Google Classroom by the assigned date: Label the main categories.

CANDIDATES: What makes the candidates who they are? What is unique? Why are they running?

Make a chart that clearly compares each candidates. The chart should minimally include party, education, background, and any other significant information that might relate to the election. The source of the information gathered should be cited in each box.

ISSUES: Make a second chart that clearly compares the candidate’s views on the three most important issues in the state. Look for the salient issues that are unique to the particular state instead of issues that are typical stands of a party-abortion being one. Avoid valence issues. The source of the information gathered should be cited in each box.

INTEREST GROUP SUPPORT: Find 3 prominent organizations (PACs, interest groups, foundations, etc.) in favor of the candidate and 3 against. It is understood that if one candidate is supported by one major organization (the NRA for example) the other would not be supported. Avoid this opposite approach and select different organizations for each.

Explain why the groups are supporting or opposing the candidates. Clear data to that represents the explanation must be included. (For example, part of the explanation can include the dollar amount an organization has donated to a candidate. A big donation demonstrates support while $0 perhaps demonstrates no support) Recommended sources for research include: Project VoteSmart and Open Secrets. Cite the source of the information.

CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISING: Using the Project Votesmart website compare the fundraising efforts of both the campaigns. Label each section as listed below.

a)  List the top 5 contributors and top 5 industries for each candidate. Compare the types of groups each candidate is receiving contributions and suggest reasons for the donations. (agricultural states may donate to candidates favoring certain agricultural policies)

b)  Do candidates receive funding from outside their states? Who is contributing? Use Open Secrets to compare the candidates and the amount of money gained from outside the state.

c)  Who is winning the fundraising race in this campaign and by how much? How does this race compare to the spending in other Senate races nationwide?

ADVERTISING:

Find an ad for and against each candidate. Describe what is said and the tactics that are used (bandwagon scare tactics, etc.) List the links for the ads in your project. How might the ad help the voter make their voting decision? Be honest in your evaluation.

OTHER MEDIA:

What media outlets (major newspaper) in the state has endorsed which candidate? Will this make a difference?

ELECTIONS IN THE STATE:

How does this state typically vote for U.S. Senate or U.S. House (the assigned race)? Is there an incumbent in the race? Why is this election close or a toss-up? What are the predictions from each of these: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report? How do the polls compare in the race?

WHO WILL WIN?

Predict who will win and explain why they will win. Present arguments to support your side using data and support from your research. Has the race been a consistent march or a roller coaster few months? There are events that occur during an election that are unpredictable and not a part of the project listed above however, they may be a deciding factor- targeted advertising, coattails, poor or good public relations, a “gaff,” a “skeleton,” and, who knows?

RUBRIC:

CANDIDATES / 10 / Chart: compares candidates on a variety of information- information cited
ISSUES / 14 / Chart: 3 issues for each, info cited
INTEREST GROUP / 14 / 3 pro 3 con for each: explanation for support and opposition
FUNDRAISING / 14 / 5 contributors and 5 industries Votesmart) outside contributors (opensecrets) winner of fundraising
ADVERTISING / 10 / 4 ads: described, linked tactics, evaluation
OTHER MEDIA / 6 / Endorsements from media
ELECTIONS IN THE STATE / 12 / How state votes? Incumbent? Why election is close or a toss-up?
Evidence that polls were compared
WHO WILL WIN / 20 / Arguments supported with data, news reports, polling information, other

To earn all the possible points the section must be complete, thorough, and contain all necessary information.

SENATE CAMPAIGNS include:

PA, OH, IN, FL, NH, NC, NV, WI, IL

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES CAMPAIGNS include:

FL -18, NY-3, CO-6, IA-3, PA-8

Use this website to select another race http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-house/

GOVERNOR’S RACES include:

NC, WV, MO, NH

DUE DATE: Nov. 2 A Day or 3 B Day