Office of Achievement and Accountability
Subject: Enrollment Projections – FY14 School Budget
I. Purpose:
Every year, City Schools uses enrollment projections to determine the dollar amount placed in the schools’ FY14 budget tool. To ensure that projections are as accurate as possible, schools are required to validate their projected enrollment numbers by January 15. Please see below for directions.
NOTE: All AOP and Citywide and Special Education Programs do NOT have to participate in this projected enrollment reconciliation process. Because the 10-year plan has not yet been approved and decisions about renewing operator-run schools have not yet been confirmed, the projections have been calculated as if the schools will remain as is. Adjustments will be made based on these future decisions.
Any questions can be directed to: . Executive Directors of Principal Support are available for one on one support.
II. Implementation Guidelines
To begin, please download the file from the Dashboard (https://erpapps.bcps.k12.md.us/pls/axpprd/f?p=2006:1) and complete the following steps:
1. Enter your school number in the red circle located in the upper-left corner (cell: B2)
2. You will see a by-grade breakdown of enrollment in 5 different ways:
a. School Year 2011-2012 FY12 9/30 Enrollment
b. School Year 2012-2013 FY13 Projected Enrollment
c. School Year 2012-2013 FY13 9/30 Enrollment
d. School Year 2012-2013 Snapshot 12/21/12 Enrollment
e. School Year 2013-2014 FY14 Projected (OAA)
3. You will also see SWD enrollment numbers in 4 different ways:
a. School Year 2011-2012 FY12 9/30 SWD Enrollment
b. School Year 2012-2013 FY13 Projected SWD Enrollment
c. School Year 2012-2013 FY13 9/30 SWD Enrollment
d. School Year 2013-2014 FY 14 Projected (OAA) [from Snapshot 12/21/12]
4. Examine the numbers
5. If you agree with the projections,
a. Select “Yes, I agree with the enrollment projections” from the drop-down menu (cell: R2)
b. Email the document to: and copy your Executive Director of Principal Support with the following information in the body of the email:
i. School #
ii. Principal Name and Contact Phone #
iii. “I agree with OAA’s projections.”
c. Copy your Executive Director in the email
6. If you disagree with the projections,
a. Select “No, I do not agree and will provide a rationale”
b. Enter your own projections in cells U6-AH6, and, if necessary in the SWD enrollment section located in cells U11-AI11
c. Provide your rationale in column AJ – The District will not accept your submission unless a rationale is provided.
d. Email the document to: and copy your Executive Director of Principal Support with the following information in the body of the email:
i. School #
ii. Principal Name and Contact Phone #
iii. “I disagree with OAA’s projections.”
e. Copy your Executive Director in the email
7. If your projections are accepted, you will be notified of approval via an email from .
8. If your projections are not accepted, you will receive an email to schedule a conversation.
Reminder: Please return your projections to by 1/15/13.
III. Methodology
To calculate projections for most grades, OAA used a multi-year average of the Grade Progression Ratio (GPR). A GPR tells you the rate at which students go from one grade to the next. For example, in your school, if 10 students were in 1st grade last year and 12 are in 2nd grade now, the GPR from 1st to 2nd grade for that year = 12/10 = 1.2. GPRs for multiple years were averaged and then applied to this year’s Official 9/30 Enrollment to project next years’ enrollment by-grade.
Projections for pre-K, Kindergarten, and the entry grades for schools, were not calculated using the GPR method. Instead:
· Pre-K: the two most recent years actual enrollment numbers were averaged
· K: the two most recent years actual enrollment numbers were averaged
· Entry grades: City Schools utilized a differentiated model that incorporated multiple data points to achieve a projection for entry-level grades (e.g. grade 6 in a 6-12 school or grade 9 in a high school)
SWD Enrollment Projections
· SCF: Self contained funded. LRE C students NOT in a Citywide program (PAL, Life Skills, ED PRIDE).
· Hours of Service: LRE A and B students by hours of specialized classroom instruction on the IEP
· Students not included in projections are the following.
o Students who only receive speech language services through an SLP (Speech Language Pathologist)
o Preschool students
o Students in Citywide Programs
o FY 14 Projected: All SWD projections are actual enrollment numbers as of December 21, 2012.
These students are not included in the projections because services are provided through locked positions.
Contact Information:
Contact Email:
For one on one support please contact your Executive Director.
City Schools- Fair student funding – Enrollment Projections – FY 2013 School Budgets Page 1