Kentucky Derby Analysis
3 Days and Counting…
By your hero, Jeff the Julepenator
(Best read with the song “Final Countdown” by Europe in the background)
It’s the week we have all been waiting for. It’s Kentucky Derby Week. You know what that means don’t you? It means that it is time to win/lose all the monies! Every last cent! The super events this week start on Wednesday when the postpositions and the final field are set for the Derby. Since I can’t wait to do a little Derby analysis, you’ll have to decide for yourself how much the postpositions affect the horses you want to bet on. Just to let you know, only a couple of horses have ever won out of the 17, 18, 19, and 20th spots. To be nice, I have put these in alphabetical order, in order to not hurt the feelings of the horses going to the glue factory. I was going to separate them by whom I thought has the best chances, but like the first day of baseball season, right now every horse has a chance to win. Ha! Like With a City will even make the finish line! Oh, wait, With a City is dead. Holy crap, now I am totally going to have bad karma because I just made fun of a dead horse!
1 / A.P. Warrior(C. Nakatani)
Record:
8 races, 3 wins, 1 place, 1 show / I am not sure what the AP stands for, but when I was in high school it stood for Advanced Placement. So apparently the owners of this horse feel he is in the advanced stage of warriorism. Is that good for the Derby? I don’t know. This horse definitely has a chance because the pace will be so hot. He likes to come from behind (with a reach around) and if all of the favorites make a move too early because of the hot pace set by Sinister Minister, then AP could come from behind and shock the other horses. Definitely a contender, but he’ll need a perfect trip. He’s Beaker’s pick for the Derby. / Morning Line:
20-1
Best Beyer:
101
2 / Barbaro
(Edgar Prado)
Record: 5 races, 5 wins / This horse is barbaric. He’s also undefeated. Barbaro has run 5 races and won all 5, but he only has run two races on dirt. The rest of them have been on turf. He also hasn’t raced since the Florida Derby which was over 5 weeks ago. And he barely ran 3 races this year, with the first one being on New Year’s Day and to win the Derby, history says you have to run 3 races in 2006, and one within the last 5 weeks. Personally, I think this horse is going to be this year’s Bandini, who came in last place in 2005. He’s not the most experienced horse, and although fast, he may get caught up in the front runners duel and get tired, I know I would. But he is one of the favorites, so watch out! / Morning Line: 7 – 1
Best Beyer:
103
3 / Bluegrass Cat
(R. Dominguez)
Record: 7 races, 4 wins, 1 place / This horse is so 2005. He won some decent races in 2005 but this year has lost to some not so good horses. The last race he lost to Sinister Minister and his jockey’s quote was, “I asked him to run and he didn’t go anywhere.” That doesn’t really sound like a motivated mule to me. His name is Bluegrass, and there is blue grass in Kentucky, so if you like bluegrass music and you feel the stars are aligning for a Foggy Mountain Boys reunion, you can pick him. / Morning Line:
30 – 1
Best Beyer:
99
4 / Bob & John
(G. Gomez)
Record:
9 races, 4 wins 1 Place and 3 show / Bob and John is a pretty brown horse. He’s going to go off at odds like he’s one of the favorites. Personally, I don’t think he has a chance. He was stabled in Santa Anita all year and kept losing to Brother Derek, so he left for New York, where they mainly stable mule deer and llamas and he won a big race. So of course he won the Wood Memorial. He barely won, I mean he was walking the last furlong. That said, he did win, and it was in the slop, so he has a chance, but I seriously don’t give him a big chance TO WIN, but to show…maybe. / Morning Line:
10 – 1
Best Beyer:
102
5 / Brother Derek
(Alex Solis)
Record:
8 races, 6 wins, 1 show / He’s the favorite, and he should be. He’s won all the big races. The Santa Anita Derby was especially impressive. He’s got 4 straight races with Beyer Speed figures over 100, which no other horse in the Derby can claim. He’s beat a lot of the other horses already too. The problem is he is the favorite, and favorites never win the Derby. I guess a couple of them have won, but you have to respect history in the Derby. He likes the lead, and this race is going to be super fast, so that may be hard for him, which may be the reason he doesn’t win the Derby. But he is pretty and strong and brown, so if you get into a knife fight or a beauty contest, you want him to be on your team. / Morning Line:
7-2
Best Beyer:
108 (twice)
6 / Cause To Believe
(Russell Baze) / There is a cause to believe this horse will come in the top ten. He’s pretty average. His owners sure think he’s the bizzomb, because even when he runs slower than a fat man, they always have a great excuse and say that he’s a really strong horse. He’s been in some decent races, and the race sets up for him well, but he definitely is not as good as many of the other horses in the race. Will he hit the board? Probably not, but if he does and you have him you could make a lot of monies. / Morning Line:
30-1
Best Beyer:
92
7 / Deputy Glitters
(Jose Lezcano) / If it rains on Friday or Saturday, you can almost garuntee this horse will come in the bottom 15. I think he even lost to With a City when that horse died the next day after racing in a sloppy field. A while ago I said if this horse won the Wood Memorial, he’d be my favorite for the Derby, but he lost, so he’s a 60 to 1 shot. I may throw $2 on him to show, but he’s uglier than Carrot Top if you ask me. / Morning Line:
60-1
Best Beyer: 102
8 / Flashy Bull
(Mike Smith)
Record:
9 races, 1 win, 4 places, 1 show / One year you when the Derby, the next year the only people that will give you a job to ride their horse is a bunch of people who pooled their money together to buy a $40,000 horse. Mike Smith rode Giacomo to the Roses last year, and this year he gets Flashy Bull, perhaps the biggest donkey in the field, if he even makes it. The problem with this horse is he is so slow the race will probably be delayed 30 minutes because it will take him that long to get from the paddock to the starting gate. When I say Don, you say Key! / Morning Line:
100 – 1
Best Beyer:
94
9 / Jazil
(Fernando Jara)
Record:
6 races, 1 win 3 places / Everybody and their brother is going to like this horse because he came from behind in the Wood Memorial to take second. Everyone is going to say, “he was FLYING at the end of the Wood…” But I would’ve looked like I was flying since everyone else in the Wood was walking at the end. He still was slower than any of the favorites in the end of that race. If he does the same thing as he did in the Wood, he could hit the board, but talk about needing some help. Kiaran McLaughlin is the trainer, who took Imperialism to third place a few years ago, but that was a miracle. Jazil is such a stupid name too, why would you want to pick him. / Morning Line:
30 – 1
Best Beyer:
97
10 / Keyed Entry
(P. Valenzuela)
5 Races, 3 wins, 1 place, 1 show / This horse has beaten some decent horses and been beaten by some decent horses. He runs pretty well, maybe not enough to win a lot, but he tries pretty hard. I would give him a B for effort. Nothing fancy about him, except for his fancy silks. So if you like your horse without a lot of crazy numbers and fancy shoes, just a nice blue and yellow shirted jockey riding him to the finish line, this is your horse. / Morning Line:
20 – 1
Best Beyer:
105
11 / Lawyer Ron
(J. McKee)
Record:
14 races, 7 wins, 1 Place, 1 Show / This horse has won 7 straight races on the dirt. He’s gone really fast one time. He ran all of the same races as Smarty Jones and won them just like Smarty. He will most likely be the number 2 choice for the Derby, which since you can’t be the favorite and win the Derby, kind of makes him the favorite. He’s pretty and brown too. Although I think the jockey’s silk you’ll see John McKee wear is very lame. Fashion is important on Derby Day too, so remember that. If you don’t have a sense of fashion, pick Lawyer Ron. / Morning Line:
5 – 1
Best Beyer:
106
12 / Point Determined
(R. Bejarano)
Record:
6 Races, 2 wins, 3 places, 1 show. / This horse is always improving. He doesn’t win a lot, but neither did Funny Cide or Giacomo before the Kentucky Derby. He really likes to get second place. He’s definitely settled into the role of the silver medal. Maybe he likes silver. I personally think silver is more versatile in fashion than gold. Gold clashes, while silver shines. If you can’t figure out just who you want to win the race when your friends ask you, say, “I don’t know who’s going to win, but I’ll tell you what, that Point Determined is sure as hell a lock for second.” / Morning Line:
25 – 1
Best Beyer:
103
13 / Private Vow
(Shaun Bridgmohan)
Record:
8 races, 4 wins, 1 place, 1 show / “Private Dancer, a dancer for money, do what you want me to do.” I think Private Vow would be better suited as a pony at one of those petting zoos than he would be as a Derby winner. If he wins, you can make fun of me, like a lot. He’s not a horrible horse, but not a horrible horse wins the Derby very rarely, and since we had a horrible horse win last year, I am just not going to waste my time. But I would totally pet the shit out of this horse at a petting zoo. / Morning Line:
40 – 1
Best Beyer:
96
15 / Seaside Retreat
(Patrick Husbands)
Record: 7 races, 3 wins, 1 place, 1 show / Ahh, to have a Seaside Retreat would be so grand. Don’t you think? To have a horse named Seaside Retreat would be just painful. He is slow, just look at his best speed figure, an 85, which is just barely above average. If this horse were in high school, he’d be a C+. Is that good? No. / Morning Line:
80 – 1
Best Beyer:
85
16 / Sharp Humor
(Mark Guidry)
Record: 7 races
4 wins, 1 place, 1 show / A poem.song by David Berman (Silver Jew):
How does an animal sleep when the ground is wet?
Cows in the ballroom
Chickens in the farmer’s corvette.
Sometimes a pony
Sometimes a pony
Sometimes a pony gets depressed. / Morning Line:
40 – 1
Best Beyer:
102
17 / Showing Up
(C. Velasquez)
Record:
3 races, 3 wins / Showing up is going to show up at the Derby with three wins under hs belt, or sadde, in three races. I can’t really see him going out to this race and winning. He’s never really raced against good competition and he raced last week, so he doesn’t really have a lot of experience going for him. So let’s just say he gets 9th. Can you bet on that? I’ll give you 18 to 1 odds that he will come in 9th, 10th, or 11th. / Morning Line:
20 – 1
Best Beyer:
100
18 / Sinister Minister
(G. Gomez)
Record:
5 races, 3 wins, 1 place / This horse has a freaking basketball on his jockey’s silk. Why the hell would you put a basketball in horse racing? It makes no sense. So he can’t win. This horse ran the fastest of any of these horses all year, but that was probably the best race ever for the Sinister Minister. If you like to pick the fastest horse, pick him. But you’ll have to remember that this horse did try to jump the rail four or five times the past couple of races. Watch out if you are one of the peeps in the infield, he may be headed your way. / Morning Line:
15 – 1
Best Beyer:
116
19 / Steppenwolfer
(R. Albarado)
Record: 8 races: 3 wins, 2 places, 2 shows / Steppenwolfer is a pretty cool name if you ask me. I hope that he was named after the awesome rock n roll band of the 60’s and 70’s, Steppenwolf. You know you love them. They play your favorite song, Born to be Wild. Their lead singer escaped from East Berlin at age 5 because he knew he was needed in the western world to rock. Back to the horse, he may not be the fastest, but if you love the rock, you can pick him. / Morning Line:
18 – 1
Best Beyer:
94
20 / Storm Treasure
(David Flores)
Record: 6 races,
1 win, 4 places / Pirate booty, that’s this horse’s nickname, I just gave it to him. If I were you I would put $5 on this horse to show just to make sure he doesn’t mess everything up on May 6th. He is not exciting or anything, but for some reason I think he is one of those horses that nobody knows about that may just have the best race of his life on my birthday. When all of the other horses were baffled by Sinister Minister’s craziness in the Bluegrass, this horse remained poised and took second. He was 12 ¾ lengths back, but he did make up 4 or 5 lengths on the horse, passing 4 others to take the silver, what happens when you add an extra furlong on? Can he catch Sinister, and pass by all of your favorite horses? / Morning Line:
60 – 1
Best Beyer:
95
21 / Sweetnorthernsaint
(K. Desmormeaux)
Record: 6 races, 3 wins, 1 show / Of all the horses that are not the favorite, this horse is the most consistent at running over 100 Beyer Speed figures. What is a Beyer speed figure? I don’t know, but apparently over 100 is a good thing. This horse will probably be fourth or fifth in the betting and has a good chance to win. He’s also one of only a couple of horses that has run consistent 12 second furlongs and shouldn’t get caught up in any speed duels. I think he could be the next Tyson Beckford too even if he comes in second place. If you bet a lot of money on this horse, and he crosses the finish line first, you are a big winner. Just like me! / Morning Line:
12 – 1
Best Beyer:
109
Good luck, and I hope you wins all the monies. Although I have no clue what the post-positions are at this point, I am going to use my twenty-sided Dungeons & Dragons die to determine the exact numbers of the first four horses for a superfecta lock. Here we go…12….6…2…4. Booyes!
Jeff The Julepenator’s Derby Trifecta! / Horse1 / SweetNorthernSaint
2 / Point Determined
3 / Brother Derek