AP Stats: Probability
1. In the November 27, 1994 issue of Parade magazine, the “Ask Marilyn” section contained this question: “Suppose a person was having two surgeries performed at the same time. If the chances of success for surgery A are 85%, and the chances of success for surgery B are 90%, what are the chances that both would fail?” What do you think of Marilyn’s solution: (.15)(.10)=0.015 or 1.5%?
(A) Her solution is mathematically correct but not explained very well.
(B) Her solution is both mathematically correct and intuitively obvious.
(C) Her use of complementary events is incorrect.
(D) Her use of the general addition formula is incorrect.
(E) She assumed independence of events, which is most likely wrong.
2. In November 1994, Intel announced that a “subtle flaw” in its Pentium chip would affect 1 in 9 billion division problems. Suppose a computer performs 20 million divisions (a not unreasonable number) in the course of a particular program. What is the probability of no error? Of at least one error?
(A) 0.99778, 0.00222
(B) 0.000000000111, 0.00222
(C) 0.000000000111, 0.999999999889
(D) 0.999999999889, 0.000000000111
(E) 0.999999999889, 0.00222
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