3 The Fiscal Strategy
Key Issues· The 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates reflect the ongoing effective implementation of the Government's Fiscal Strategy.
· The Fiscal Strategy is based on enduring principles of strong and sound financial management which should be pursued by government regardless of changes in the financial and economic environment.
· These principles will be incorporated in legislation through proposed amendments to the Charter of Budget Responsibility Act 2007, due to be tabled in the second half of 2015.
· The Fiscal Strategy reflects the Government's commitment to improving public sector efficiency, constraining government expenditure, maintaining tax competitiveness, delivering improved services to the Tasmanian community and maintaining the Government's infrastructure investment.
· A key element of the Fiscal Strategy was the development of a set of important strategic actions that the Government will implement to achieve the established principles.
· Given the risks to the State Budget detailed in this Budget Paper and, in particular, the high level of uncertainty in relation to the level of future GST receipts and Australian Government funding, it is essential that action continues to be taken to ensure the achievement of the Fiscal Strategy over the medium to long-term and the return of the State Budget to a sustainable basis.
Fiscal Principles
The focus of the Government's Fiscal Strategy is on the achievement of long-term fiscal principles which reflect responsible financial management and aim to deliver long-term financial sustainability for Tasmania. Long-term fiscal principles are intended to be enduring and applicable across financial and economic cycles. The use of a principles based approach recognises that a government can legitimately depart from shortterm objectives in response to changing circumstances, as long as that departure is necessary, transparent and justifiable. While the Fiscal Strategy has a core focus on the longterm, shorterterm objectives and relevant financial and economic statistics are still important in enabling the measurement of the Government's progress against the principles.
The Government has committed to include its announced long-term fiscal principles within legislation. To this end, amendments to the Charter of Budget Responsibility Act are currently being prepared that will see the following principles included in the legislation.
1. Manage the State's finances responsibly for the wellbeing of all Tasmanians.
2. Take care of the future for the next generation of Tasmanians.
3. Manage for the unexpected by building a robust financial position.
4. Improve services to Tasmanians by building a strong economy and efficiently allocating resources to gain the maximum community benefit.
5. Formulate spending and taxation policies that ensure a reasonable degree of equity, stability and predictability.
6. Ensure transparency and accountability in developing, implementing and reporting on fiscal objectives.
Strategic Actions
The Government's Fiscal Strategy includes a number of important strategic actions that are aimed at achieving the principles detailed above. These strategic actions are focussed on the long-term and do not involve the development of specific numerical targets. Furthermore, the strategic actions may change in the longer run in response to a changing budgetary and economic environment, in order to appropriately support the achievement of the fiscal principles.
The strategic actions that are initially being implemented by the Government to support the fiscal principles are detailed below.
1. Annual growth in General Government operating expenses will be lower than the long-term average growth in revenue.
2. General Government debt and defined benefit superannuation liabilities will be managed to ensure the combined annual servicing cost is less than six per cent of General Government cash receipts.
3. A competitive tax environment will be maintained with an objective for state taxes to be efficient, fair, simple, stable and sustainable.
4. Government businesses will be required to deliver services to Tasmanians at the lowest sustainable cost, while also providing an appropriate financial return to the Government.
5. Tasmanian Government infrastructure investment will maintain existing assets, respond to economic and population growth and reflect the changing needs of the community.
6. Public sector efficiency, productivity and financial transparency will be improved.
Fiscal Strategy Progress
Table 3.1 summarises the current progress that has been made by the Government in implementing the strategic actions.
Table 3.1 2015-16 Budget Fiscal Strategy Progress
Strategic Action / 2015-16 Budget Progress1. Annual growth in General Government operating expenses will be lower than the long-term average growth in revenue. / · Chart 3.1 summarises recent growth in Budget revenue and expenditure and the projected growth over the 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates period.
· Chart 3.2 compares the compound annual growth rates of revenue and expenditure in the period 2005-06 to 2013-14 (actual) and 2014-15 (estimated outcome) to 2018-19 (201516 Budget and Forward Estimates).
· The long-run growth in revenue is approximately 4.6percent per annum (199900 to 201314 actual). If the growth in revenue is calculated from the 201415 estimated outcome to the 201819 Forward Estimate, the compound annual growth rate is 2.8percent.
· In comparison, if the growth in expenses is calculated from the 201415 estimated outcome to the 2018-19 Forward Estimate, the compound annual rate of growth is 1.1percent.
· The 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates reflect the achievement of this strategic action.
· A Net Operating Balance surplus is now estimated to be achieved in 2016-17, which is three years earlier than the Government's 201415 target of a surplus by 2019-20. The last time a Net Operating Balance surplus was achieved was in 2009-10.
· While this strategic action is being achieved at this time, it is essential that expenditure continues to be constrained over the medium to long-term given the uncertainties in relation to financial transfers from the Australian Government. This includes ongoing constraint in public sector wage outcomes and careful management of public sector employment levels.
Table 3.1 2015-16 Budget - Fiscal Strategy Progress (continued)
Strategic Action / 2015-16 Budget Progress2. General Government debt and defined benefit superannuation liabilities will be managed to ensure the combined annual servicing cost is less than sixper cent of General Government cash receipts. / · Table 3.2 shows that, over the 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates period, borrowing and defined benefit superannuation costs as a percentage of General Government cash receipts remain below the established maximum of six per cent. The figures presented in Table 3.2 represent an improvement on the estimates presented in the 2014-15 Budget due to an increase in the level of General Government cash receipts and a reduction in superannuation costs.
· In addition to the improvement in the measure detailed above, the 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates show a significant improvement in the level of General Government Net Debt. General Government Net Debt is now estimated to be negative $252.6million as at 30 June 2016. This is an improvement of $423.8 million from the estimate for Net Debt as at 30June2016 included in the 2013-14 Revised Estimates Report (published in February 2014).
· Due to the projected improvement in the Net Operating and Fiscal Balances, the Government is now not expected to return to a General Government Net Debt position in 2016-17 (as was expected to occur in both the 2014-15 Budget and 2014-15 Revised Estimates Report) and is forecast to remain in an improving Net Debt position over the Forward Estimates period.
3. A competitive tax environment will be maintained with an objective for state taxes to be efficient, fair, simple, stable and sustainable. / · Tasmania needs a competitive tax environment to support business investment and drive economic growth.
· Chart3.3 shows that, according to the most recent Commonwealth Grants Commission data, Tasmania currently has the lowest taxation severity of all jurisdictions and is well below the national average.
· A competitive tax environment complements other support provided by the Government to business through entities such as the Department of State Growth, the Office of the CoordinatorGeneral and Tourism Tasmania.
· In this Budget, the Government has announced the extension of the $20000 First Home Builders Boost payment for a further sixmonths and the allocation of $8 million to support a jobs attraction and population growth initiative.
· As announced in the 2014-15 Budget, the Government has committed to reduce motortax on light vehicles and duty on MotorAccidents Insurance Board premiums from 201718.
Table 3.1 2015-16 Budget - Fiscal Strategy Progress (continued)
Strategic Action / 2015-16 Budget Progress3. A competitive tax environment will be maintained with an objective for state taxes to be efficient, fair, simple, stable and sustainable (continued). / · Reforms arising from Australian Government White Papers on the Reform of Federation and the Reform of Australia's Taxation System may have significant implications for Tasmania. The Government will continue to actively participate in the White Paper development processes. Further information is provided in chapter 5 of this Budget Paper.
4. Government businesses will be required to deliver services to Tasmanians at the lowest sustainable cost, while also providing an appropriate financial return to the Government. / · Throughout 2014-15, the Government implemented a range of measures to enhance the financial transparency of government businesses. This has included: revised remuneration guidelines; new guidelines to enhance opportunities for local businesses to compete for Government business and increase the transparency of Government business procurement activities; and new guidelines to ensure the timely payment of accounts by all Government businesses.
· The Government has also taken a number of steps to improve the efficiency and financial performance of government businesses and their contribution to the Budget, including:
assessing options to better align the operations of the Tasmanian Ports Corporation Pty Ltd and Tasmanian Railway Pty Ltd and agreeing that both businesses should continue to operate as separate companies and work together to identify ways in which coordination and joint planning between the two businesses can be improved;
undertaking a review of Forestry Tasmania and starting the process to transition the business to a more financially sustainable model. Further information on the review of Forestry Tasmania is included in chapter11 of Government Services Budget Paper No. 2;
continuing to progress a review of Hydro Tasmania's strategy and business model to ensure that the business can provide returns to the State commensurate with its equity in the business;
considering options for the future operations of the Retirement Benefits Fund, to protect the best interests of its members and reduce risk to Government. Further information on the future role of the Retirement Benefits Fund is included in chapter11 of Government Services Budget Paper No. 2;
reallocating equity across the State owned electricity business portfolio; and
committing to the refurbishment of the Spirit of Tasmania vessels to encourage more tourists on TT-Line's vessels.
Table 3.1 2015-16 Budget - Fiscal Strategy Progress (continued)
Strategic Action / 2015-16 Budget Progress4. Government businesses will be required to deliver services to Tasmanians at the lowest sustainable cost, while also providing an appropriate financial return to the Government (continued). / · Over the coming year, the Government will:
undertake reviews of: Treasurer's Instructions to reduce red tape and simplify administrative processes; Guarantee Fee Guidelines for Tasmanian Government businesses; and current board appointment processes;
continue to work with Hydro Tasmania to ensure it has an effective strategy and business model to deliver appropriate returns in the future;
continue to work with Tasracing Pty Ltd to develop an operating model that will allow it to operate sustainably within its annual Government grant funding allocation;
continue to work with Forestry Tasmania to implement reforms arising from the review of the business, to establish a financially sustainable model to manage and make commercially available Tasmania's production native forest resources;
undertake a review of board appointment processes, including the arrangements for reviewing board performance and renewing board membership; and
work with RBF and other parties to implement the Government's preferred reform options for managing public sector superannuation, to improve the delivery of public sector superannuation and minimise financial risks to the Government.
· Chart 3.4 shows actual and expected Government business returns over the period 2009-10 to 2018-19.
5. Tasmanian Government infrastructure investment will maintain existing assets, respond to economic and population growth and reflect the changing needs of the community. / · Infrastructure investment is essential to the delivery of services to the community and is also vital to supporting economic growth.
· Over the Budget and Forward Estimates period, the Government will invest over $1.8billion in Tasmania's infrastructure to support the Tasmanian community.
· In the 2014-15 Revised Estimates Report, the Government committed an additional $71.9million to complete the Royal Hobart Hospital Redevelopment Project (total project value of $636.9million).
Table 3.1 2015-16 Budget - Fiscal Strategy Progress (continued)
Strategic Action / 2015-16 Budget Progress5. Tasmanian Government infrastructure investment will maintain existing assets, respond to economic and population growth and reflect the changing needs of the community (continued). / · The 2015-16 Budget includes $179million in additional funding for infrastructure projects over the 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates period including $57million for schools and LINCs, $10million for health transport infrastructure, $15.3million for a new Emergency Services Computer Aided Dispatch System, $8million for parks high priority maintenance and infrastructure and $2million for police housing.
· The 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates also include an allocation of $60million for the Northern Cities Major Development Initiative.
· Outside of the State Capital Program, the 2015-16 Budget also includes an additional $37.2million for rail infrastructure.
· Chart 3.5 shows that, over the 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates period, investment by the Government in NonFinancial Assets continues to exceed the value of depreciation. Table 3.3 summarises 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates Depreciation and Purchases of NonFinancial Assets estimates.
6. Public sector efficiency, productivity and financial transparency will be improved. / · The Budget Savings Strategies announced in the 2014-15 Budget are continuing to be implemented by agencies and will assist in improving the productivity and efficiency of the Tasmanian public sector.
· As a result of the 2014-15 Budget Savings Strategies and the additional agency savings required due to unions not agreeing to support a public sector pay pause (with the exception of the Police Association of Tasmania), General Government FTE numbers have reduced by 766 between 30 June 2014 and 31March2015.
· Employee costs account for approximately 47 per cent of total General Government operating expenditure. It is essential that, as with all areas of Government expenditure, expenditure on employee costs continues to be constrained. The Government's wages policy provides for the negotiation of maximum wage increases of no greater than two per cent per annum including identified productivity offsets.
· Action is being taken to increase financial transparency through the finalisation of amendments to the Charter of Budget Responsibility Act and finalising new financial management legislation with a view to tabling in the second half of 2015.
Table 3.1 2015-16 Budget - Fiscal Strategy Progress (continued)