3.7.2 Report of the WWRP Panel on Tropical Cyclones

3.7.2 Report of the WWRP Panel on Tropical Cyclones

This report will summarize progress by the WGTMR Tropical Cyclone Panel. The structure of this report follows the items in the draft WWRP Strategic Plan.

Tropical Cyclone Field Experiments: The Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS08) field experiment in conjunction with the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) was successfully carried out during August-September 2008. Early results from the combined TCS08/T-PARC field experiment are summarized in item 3.7.3. The TCS08 has been extended to include another field experiment during 20 August-20 October 2010, which will be referred to as TCS10. This field experiment will be in conjunction with a major field experiment called Interaction of Typhoons and Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) that will observe the coupled ocean response to typhoon passage.

The first flights of a research aircraft from China into a South China Sea tropical cyclone were carried during the summer 2008. The focus of the combined aircraft and coastal surface and upper-air observing sites is to understand the tropical cyclone boundary layer.

Task TMR-TC.1: In conjunction with the WMO/WWW Tropical Cyclone Program, the second International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-II) will be held in Shanghai, PRC during 19-23 October 2009. A group of experts will present the status, gaps, and requirements to improve guidance on tropical cyclone impacts. A panel of five forecasters will similarly identify gaps and requirements to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone landfall. Opportunities for improved observations, data assimilation and modeling, and guidance products will be described. Reviews of field experiments that are expected to provide new understanding and forecast products will also be presented. In each series of presentations, specific applications will be suggested that may improve guidance or forecast and warning procedures regarding tropical cyclone threats for the Shanghai EXPO 2010.

Task TMR-TC.2: The keystone quadrennial seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII) will be held in late November 2010 in La Reunion, France. This will be the first IWTC to be held in the Southwest Indian Ocean region, and will be hosted by Meteo France. Although the WMO/WWW Tropical Cyclone Program is again a co-sponsor, the budget is entirely within the WWRP. The Co-Directors will be Chris Velden of the University of Wisconsin and Jeff Kepert of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. An International Organizing Committee (IOC) has been appointed with the forecaster representation from the various WMO regions and leading researchers.

This IWTC will likely be only six days in length since it is intended to build on the successful completion of a number of initiatives from IWTC-VI (see Tasks TMR-TC.8 through TMR-TC.11 in section 3.6.1.1 Tropical Cyclone Panel). Various potential themes for IWTC-VII are being vetted through the IOC.

Task TMR-TC.3: The post-TCS08 experiment workshop has been delayed until 27-29 October 2009. This workshop will include progress reports from various research groups, coordinate future research analyses, and finalize plans for a journal article on TCS08.

Task TMR-TC.4: Planning for the Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone Experiment (SWICE) in January and February 2011 is proceeding. The lead agency is Meteo France and an international group of tropical cyclone targeting experts is being formed. A proposal for WWRP endorsement of this project is item 3.7.4 in this meeting. Supporting documents are a summary of SWICE in item 3.7.4.1. and a near-final version of the White Book on a SWICE in item 3.7.4.2.

Task TMR-TC.5: An affiliation with the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) has been established. A presentation on HFIP was given at the Region IV Hurricane Committee meeting to inform and enlist the support of the NMHS in this program.

Task TMR-TC.6: A similar affiliation is being arranged with the U.S. National Science Foundation, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, and Naval Postgraduate School research program called PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT). This 2010 field experiment will feature a high-altitude Gulfstream-V aircraft from NCAR to observe many forms of the precursor disturbances and the physical processes of tropical cyclone genesis on the mesoscale, which will contribute to a WGTMR research objective.

Task TMR-TC.7: Planning continues for the proposed international tropical cyclone mesoscale model inter-comparison using the four-plane observations and other observations in Typhoon Sinlaku prior to it striking Taiwan. Options for data assimilation of the special observations have been explored. Organization of the numerical model intercomparison will be in conjunction with the WG Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), who have experience in such intercomparisons.

Task TMR-TC.8: The WGTMR Expert Team in Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclone has been expanded to include experts from India and Japan. The Expert Team helps arrange the first International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change in Oman during March 2009. The program for this conference is on the WWRP website under 2009 meetings. This Expert Team is about to submit a journal article that is an assessment of climate change and tropical cyclones based on the latest published articles. The Expert Team will also issue an updated Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change intended for the WMO and NMHSs.

Task TMR-TC.9: The WGTMR Expert Team on Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones has established (June 2009) a prototype WMO website of forecasts that are consistent in areal and temporal coverage. The August updates of the seasonal forecasts are now available on the website. Further improvements of the website are planned, and additional groups will be asked to submit their forecasts.

Task TMR-TC.10: All 13 chapters of the updated book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones have undergone final revisions and have been sent to the publisher. Publication of the book is expected in about six months.

Task TMR-TC.11: Progress on completing the WMO website with the Global Guide for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting has been delayed due to illness of the lead person.

Linkages with other agencies: Presentations on the WGTMR portions of the WWRP Strategic Plan were made at the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee meeting in Chiang Mai, Thailand and at the Region IV Hurricane Committee meeting in Nassau, Bahamas. At both meetings, some early results from TCS08 were presented that indicate a consensus of four global models is capable of providing an early outlook of tropical cyclone formation and up to 72-h track forecasts for pre-tropical cyclone seedlings and tropical depressions. Such guidance was most effective for those seedlings that would later become strong tropical storms and typhoons, which should be useful for NMHSs as an early warning.

Upon an invitation from the WMO/WWW Tropical Cyclone Program, a series of three presentations on the principles and advantages of consensus forecasting was given at an ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee workshop in Jeju Island, Korea. A similar workshop will be presented in the Southern Hemisphere based on the JejuIsland materials.

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