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Output 1: Policy-oriented research projects
1.1 Research project 1: economic growth, poverty reduction and sustainable development / Ongoing research as per TOR / Dinh Cung/Hoang Van Thanh and Ha
+ Vu Xuan Nguyet Hong and Nguyen Manh Hai / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / 2 senior months (Tarp)
6 other months (Jensen)
7 research assistant months
+ travel
4 seminars, 2 draft studies on environmental issues, SAM data/documentation and wealth estimates
1.2 Research project 2: international economic integration / Ongoing research as per TOR / Vo Tri Thanh/Pham Lan Huong / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / X / 2 senior months (Abbott)
2 senior months (Arndt)
5 research assistant months
+ travel
2 seminars, 2 2007 studies published (cashew and WTO impact model based analysis) and 2 new labour market papers
Output 3: In country workshops/seminars/training courses/conferences / To take place as indicated and specified in TOR / Dinh Van An
3.1 Research project 1 / Dinh Cung/Hoang Van Thanh/Ha + Hong/Nguyen Manh Hai / X / X / XX / DoE staff inputs under 1.1
3.2 Research project 2 / Vo Tri Thanh/Pham Lan Huong / X / X / DoE staff inputs under 1.1
3.3 BSPS province profiles / No activity in 2008
3.4 BSPS SME / Tran Tien Cuong/Le Van Su/Nguyen Thanh Tam / X / X / DoE staff inputs under BSPS
3.5 BSPS household / Chu Tien Quang/Luu Duc Khai / X / X / DoE staff inputs under BSPS
Project management and administration / Ongoing and with visits as shown / Dinh Van An / X / X / X / X / 2 DoE coordinator months (Tarp) + travel
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2008 Terms of Reference and Staffing
1. Research project 1: Economic growth, poverty reduction and sustainable development
This project will focus on two lines of work:
First line:(i) further development of the real social accounting matrix framework (RSAM) by careful up-dating of the previously established 2003 RSAM (Jensen & Tarp, 2003) using a more recent living standard survey to disaggregate the household sector; (ii) establishing a 2003 financial social accounting matrixframework (FSAM) based on the up-dated 2003 RSAM; and (iii) initiating a study on the use of economic instruments in Vietnamese environmental policy making, building on the previous study of current environmental issues (Jensen, Hai, Hong & Tarp, 2007).
Specific outputs will include: (i) An up-dated 2003 real SAM (documentation plus data file); (ii) A 2003 financial SAM (documentation plus data file); and (iii) A draft study on the use of economic instruments in Vietnamese policy planning. If time and data permits, a financial CGE model will be established with the purpose of analysing the impact of trade reform on the Vietnamese financial sector.
Workshops etc.:
- One seminar in January covering a presentation ofVietnamese experiences with environmental economic analysis, with a focus on the use of economic instruments in policy planning.
- One seminar in May/June covering project findings on environmental issues, with a focus on the use of economic instruments in policy planning.
Second line:This line of the project will examine the contribution of the natural resource sector to sustainable growth in Vietnam. Natural resources are special economic goods because they are not produced. As a consequence, natural resources yield economic profits—rents. If properly managed, natural resources can contribute to continued economic growth. Natural resource rents can also be an important additional source of development financing. The proposed research will estimate the value of natural resource rents generated from different resources and assess how well existing economic and natural resource policies capture these rents.
The proposed research will thus continue the estimation of natural resources wealth for Vietnam and analyze policy relevant to the management of natural resources in specific sectors. So far the collaboration between DoE and CIEM on natural resource wealth has focused on building the methodological framework for the estimation of natural resource wealth estimation, with estimates of the value of land resources and forest resources carried out as applications. In addition, an analysis of the impact of policy in the forestry sector has been conducted (analyzing the 5 million hectare programme). In this next phase of the work programme, estimates of natural wealth from minerals and energy resources, and fisheries will be added. An analysis focusing on what proportion of natural resource rents are being captured through current economic and natural resource management policies and how natural resource rents are used will be carried out.
Specific outputs in 2008 will include: (i) estimates of wealth from minerals and energy resources, and possibly fisheries (see note comments below), accompanied by a discussion paper on natural resource wealth; (ii) a policy analysis discussion paper focusing on management policy for some specific resources.
Workshops etc.:
- One seminar/workshop in May covering preliminary project findings on wealth estimates from mineral and energy resources. The seminar will also serve to identify potential relevant policy analysis studies based on the natural wealth estimates presented.
- One seminar in November presenting the outputs of this line of research.
Staff: Professors Henning Tarp Jensen, Jørgen Birk Mortensen, Patricia Silva, and Finn Tarp together with one part-time research assistant)
Comments: It is essential that CIEM staff (i) ensure that the necessary data for the development of the FSAM are obtained both directly and through the supporting national consultancies; and take initiative to obtain the relevant data for the estimation of natural resource wealth from mineral and energy resources, and fisheries. Some preliminary data has been obtained on mineral and energy resources (production levels and stock estimates), however, critical data on cost of production is needed. The possibility for estimating of value of fisheries resources will need to be assessed first and then a go ahead decision will be made based on data availability. CIEM staff will also play the leading role in identifying relevant policy analysis issues. It is also noted that CIEM will recruit a number of national consultants to contribute to this project.
Finally, CIEM will plan for both workshops/seminars and publication of studies.
2. Research project 2: International economic integration
This project will continue to contribute to increased understanding of the issues surrounding Vietnam’s WTO accession and the potential social and economic impacts hereof. In addition to completing and publishing the two studies pursued in 2007 (i.e. the model based WTO impact analysis and the cashew sector study), work on the challenges of the Vietnamese labour market subsequent to WTO accession in early 2007 will be initiated as already suggested in the 2007 work plan. The new efforts will be geared towards (i) collecting and reviewing existing studies on the labour market, (ii) studying trends and the skills structure in the labour market, and (iii) start adapting the existing model to accommodate labour market issues.
The research under research project 2 will focus on dynamic aspects of the labour market with particular attention to human capital accumulation. Primarily via the education system, human capital is created. Higher skilled people can undertake more complex tasks and generate greater value added. Skills upgrading is thus a source of economic growth in all economies and critical in light of WTO accession. In order to start addressing the issues of skills upgrading, the project will start estimating education system transition matrices. These matrices will consider how historically students have moved through the educational system. In the large majority of instances, one of three things happens to students within the educational system: a) they proceed to a higher level within the system, b) they repeat the same level within the system, or c) they exit the educational system altogether. By assigning a probability to each principal outcome (plus potentially a trend in these probabilities), the estimated transition matrices provide a useful tool for forecasting future labour stocks by education level. These levels can include technical school training and university. The matrices will also provide forecasts of enrolments at each education level and hence need for teachers at each level for a given pupil to teacher ratio.
Specific outputs will include: (i) An analytical WTO impact study; (ii) A cashew sector study; (iii) An overview of labour market literature on Vietnam; and (iv) A paper on trends and skills structure (including transition matrices). The first two of these outputs are from 2007, but the last two are new outputs.
Workshops etc.:
- One seminar in January on WTO impact study findings and implications (delayed from November 2007) to be held together with presentation of the cashew sector study.
- One seminar in November on labour market findings and results.
Staff: Professors Phil Abbott and Channing Arndt (and Finn Tarp) together with one part-time research assistant
Comments: Estimation of education system transition matrices requires time series data on enrolments at each educational level. It is often useful to have the data disaggregated by gender and by region. While more data is better than less, a ten year time series would be the minimum. It is essential that CIEM assumes responsibility for obtaining these data as well as existing labour market studies and data. The same goes for contracting local consultancy inputs required for this purpose/project, and CIEM should plan for both workshops/seminars and publication of studies.
3. Research management and administration
Overall advice, project management and reporting will be a recurring activity in Denmark and during a set of four visits to Vietnam.
Specific tasks will include:
- Monitoring of activities and outputs against the 2008 work plan
- Follow-up on contractual arrangements
- Review and revision of project activities as appropriate
- Progress (including financial) reporting
- Elaboration of 2009 work plan and budget
Staff: Professor Finn Tarp
Comments: none
2008Budget
(In DKK)
PRG/DoE 2008Financial inputs from Danida (in DKK)
Outputs/Items
Rate / Unit / Total
1 / Policy-oriented research projects
1,1 / Research Project 1
Economic growth, poverty reduction and sustainable development
- DoE senior researchers / 62.523 / 2,0 / 125.046
- Other DoE researchers / 46.702 / 6,0 / 280.212
- DoE Research assistant / 13.498 / 7,0 / 94.486
- International travels for international researchers / 24.000 / 4,0 / 96.000
Sub-total / 595.744
1,2 / Research Project 2
International economic integration
- DoE senior researchers/and others / 62.523 / 4,0 / 250.092
- DoE Research assistant / 13.498 / 5,0 / 67.490
- International travels for international researchers / 24.000 / 3,0 / 72.000
Sub-total / 389.582
Management and administration cost
- Flights of DOE project coordinator / 24.000 / 2,0 / 48.000
- DoE project coordinator / 62.523 / 2,0 / 125.046
- Communications for DOE / 9.000 / 0,7 / 5.940
Sub-total / 178.986
Total before overheads / 1.164.312
Overhead (20%) / 232.862
Total / 1.397.174
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