Foreign Affairs
Volume 92, Issue 5, Sep/Oct 2013
1. Title: Africa's Turn: A Conversation With Macky Sall
Authors: Anonymous
Abstract: In an interview, Pres Macky Sall of Senegal, talked about his country. Sall said his victory certainly meant that the Senegalese people chose change. A great deal of hope is what put him in power. He's quite aware of that. So his role is to strengthen this democratic choice. That's what he's trying to do through the institutional reform commission that he set up, which must work to strengthen democracy and not to bring about a new regime. It is clear that terrorism is a plague in their countries. It compounds their development problems. They have to ensure the security of their populations, the inviolability of their borders, and the stability of their states so that they can focus on such issues as development and poverty. He's a liberal, so he believes the economy is not something that the state creates. But the state has a fundamental role: to secure an environment conducive to business.
2. Title: David Cameron's Dangerous Game: The Folly of Flirting With an EU Exit
Authors: Matthijs, Matthias.
Abstract: Despite his innate caution and usually sound political instincts, British Prime Minister David Cameron is gambling with his country's future. In January, in a long-anticipated speech, he called for a wide-ranging renegotiation of the terms of the UK's membership in the European Union and promised to put the result up for a straight in-or-out popular referendum by the end of 2017. The UK's relationship with Europe has never been warm, much less passionate; it is more like a loveless arranged marriage. Based on cost-benefit analysis rather than lofty rhetoric about a common European destiny, the country's European affair has been fraught with abysmal timing and shattered hopes. There is a real danger, then, that the UK will end its relationship with Europe -- making the tragic mistake of trading genuine power for the mirage of national sovereignty.
3. Title: How Big Business Can Save the Climate: Multinational Corporations Can Succeed Where Governments Have Failed
Authors: Patchell, Jerry; Hayter, Roger.
Abstract: In September 1987, representatives of 24 countries met in Montreal and accomplished a rare feat in international politics: a successful environmental accord. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, which un Secretary-General Kofi Annan later called "perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date," set the ambitious goal of phasing out chlorofluorocarbons and other dangerous chemicals. Unfortunately, this success has not been matched when it comes to the world's greatest collective challenge: stopping climate change. Climate diplomacy urgently needs a new approach. Borrowing from Montreal's playbook, the international community should shift its focus from setting targets that countries cannot meet to setting directives that multinational corporations have to follow. Their global reach and tremendous capacity for the research, development, demonstration, and diffusion of new technologies offer the best chance of addressing climate change. As the world continues to climb out of a recession, multinational corporations are far better placed to tackle climate change than deficit-ridden or poor governments.
4. Title: Who Is Ali Khamenei? The Worldview of Iran's Supreme Leader
Authors: Ganji, Akbar.
Abstract: In June, Hassan Rouhani was elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Rouhani ran as a reform candidate, and many have interpreted his victory as a harbinger of a possible liberalization or rationalization of Iranian domestic and foreign policy. But the dominant figure in Iranian politics is not the president but rather the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian constitution endows the supreme leader with tremendous authority over all major state institutions, and Khamenei, who has held the post since 1989, has found many other ways to further increase his influence. Given Khamenei's control over Iranian policy and his deeply rooted suspicion of US intentions toward the Islamic Republic, improving the relationship between Iran and the US will be difficult, especially if long-standing US policies, such as constantly escalating sanctions, remain in place. Yet improved relations are not impossible, because the most important interests of both Tehran and Washington can indeed be accommodated simultaneously.
5. Title: Ending the War in Afghanistan: How to Avoid Failure on the Installment Plan
Authors: Biddle, Stephen.
Abstract: International forces in Afghanistan are preparing to hand over responsibility for security to Afghan soldiers and police by the end of 2014. But the war will not end in 2014. The US role may end, in whole or in part, but the war will continue -- and its ultimate outcome is very much in doubt. Since outlasting the Taliban is unlikely, the only realistic alternative to eventual defeat is a negotiated settlement. The administration has pursued such a deal for well over a year, but so far the process has yielded little, and there is now widespread skepticism about the talks. It would be preferable for the war to end a different way: through a negotiated compromise with the Taliban. Talks so complicated and fraught, of course, might fail even if the US does everything possible to facilitate them. But without such efforts, the chances of success are minimal, and the result is likely to be just a slower, more expensive version of failure. Getting out now is a better policy than that.
6. Title: The Limits of Counterinsurgency Doctrine in Afghanistan: The Other Side of the COIN
Authors: Eikenberry, Karl W.
Abstract: Since 9/11, two consecutive US administrations have labored mightily to help Afghanistan create a state inhospitable to terrorist organizations with transnational aspirations and capabilities. The goal has been clear enough, but its attainment has proved vexing. Of the various strategies that the US has employed in Afghanistan over the past dozen years, the 2009 troop surge was by far the most ambitious and expensive. Counterinsurgency (coin) doctrine was at the heart of the Afghan surge. Rediscovered by the US military during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, counterinsurgency was updated and codified in 2006 in Field Manual 3-24, jointly published by the US Army and the Marines. Broadly stated, modern coin doctrine stresses the need to protect civilian populations, eliminate insurgent leaders and infrastructure, and help establish a legitimate and accountable host-nation government able to deliver essential human services. In sum, the essential task is deciding how to do less with less.
7. Title: The Rise of the Rest of India: How States Have Become the Engines of Growth
Authors: Sharma, Ruchir.
Abstract: When Nitish Kumar became chief minister of the dirt-poor Indian state of Bihar in 2005, kidnapping was said to be the leading industry in the capital city of Patna. Although known for his soft-spoken manner, Kumar cracked down hard. Within a few years, a state once described by the writer V. S. Naipaul as "the place where civilization ends" had built one of the fastest-growing state economies in India. And Kumar was recognized as a leader in the new generation of dynamic chief ministers who are remaking the economic map and future of India. The new generation of state leaders sets itself apart from the genteel Brahmans of the Congress party, who have dominated Indian politics for decades and have never been comfortable promoting what they see as crass commerce. If a combination of state leaders spurs India to embrace its natural federal structure and delegate more economic power to the states, it could well put the country on the path to a comeback.
8. Title: Petroleum to the People: Africa's Coming Resource Curse-and How to Avoid It
Authors: Diamond, Larry; Mosbacher, Jack.
Abstract: Equatorial Guinea has become a textbook example of the so-called resource curse, a global phenomenon in which vast natural resource wealth leads to rapacious corruption, decimated governance, and chronic underdevelopment. Equatorial Guinea's example will become increasingly relevant over the next decade as a massive wave of new oil and gas discoveries transforms Africa's economic and political landscape. Experts have traditionally recommended solving that problem by focusing on instilling transparency and accountability. But transparency initiatives alone are not nearly adequate to the task. Given that reality, it is time to try a new policy approach, one that could drastically alter these incentives: the direct distribution of a portion of oil revenues to citizens as taxable income. Admittedly, the oil-to-cash plan is an unwieldy and largely untested initiative. But in an area where every conventional approach has failed, only a radical departure is likely to succeed.
9. Title: Helping Congo Help Itself: What It Will Take to End Africa's Worst War
Authors: Stearns, Jason K.
Abstract: It would be easy to label the Democratic Republic of the Congo an irredeemable mess. For almost two decades, the country has been roiled by a series of wars involving neighboring countries and dozens of Congolese militias. This dismal picture is misleading. Congo's problems are complex, but certainly not beyond repair. Congo's government is not only extremely weak, but it is also beholden to a political logic of patronage that undermines the reform of its own state and encourages the creation of competing armed groups. Yet conflict in Congo continues not just because of the local protagonists but also due to the failures of the foreign diplomats and activists who have not grappled with the underlying dynamics. If the Congolese government continues to hamstring its own security apparatus and to fuel armed groups in the country's eastern region, and if Rwanda's ruling party maintains its support for armed groups next door, there is little doubt that the heart of Africa will continue to be plagued by insurrection and violence.
10. Title: Stealth Multilateralism: U.S. Foreign Policy Without Treaties-or the Senate
Authors: Kaye, David.
Abstract: The US Senate rejects multilateral treaties as if it were sport. The US' commitment problem has grown so entrenched that foreign governments no longer expect Washington's ratification or its full participation in the institutions treaties create. The foundation of the Senate's posture is the belief, widespread among conservative Republicans, that multilateral treaties represent a grave threat to American sovereignty and democracy. Treaty-making, however, is an expression of sovereignty, not a threat to it, and by excluding itself from the process, the US loses the opportunity to influence global problem solving. In addition to lending support to rejected treaties, the executive branch also gets around the Senate by striking nonbinding international agreements and crafting informal arrangements on its own authority. In a perfect world, a responsible Senate would carefully weigh the costs and benefits of joining every treaty and would seek to integrate the US into the international forums from which it is now estranged. Until that happens, the White House will have to settle for end runs.
11. Title: Why Convergence Breeds Conflict: Growing More Similar Will Push China and the United States Apart
Authors: Leonard, Mark.
Abstract: The US-Chinese relationship stands in stark contrast to the one between the US and the Soviet Union, the last country to rival American power. Today, competition has more to do with status than ideology. As a result, differences between great powers frequently lead to complementarity and cooperation, whereas convergence is often at the root of conflict. As they rebalance their economies and recalibrate their foreign policies, Beijing and Washington are increasingly fighting over shared interests. The financial crisis of 2008 brought the Chimerican era to an end. Sobered by their mutual vulnerability to the systemic failures that led to the crisis, Beijing and Washington vowed to rebalance their economic relationship, which both felt had become unhealthy. But as they retooled their domestic and foreign policies to adapt to the suddenly fragile global economy, they began to mirror each other in ways that encouraged more competition than complementarity.
12. Title: China's Real and Present Danger: Now Is the Time for Washington to Worry
Authors: Goldstein, Avery.
Abstract: For at least the next decade, while China remains relatively weak compared to the US, there is a real danger that Beijing and Washington will find themselves in a crisis that could quickly escalate to military conflict. Unlike a long-term great-power strategic rivalry that might or might not develop down the road, the danger of a crisis involving the two nuclear-armed countries is a tangible, near-term concern -- and the events of the past few years suggest the risk might be increasing. Uncertainty about what could lead either Beijing or Washington to risk war makes a crisis far more likely, since neither side knows when, where, or just how hard it can push without the other side pushing back. Although it will be difficult to eliminate the possibility of US-Chinese confrontations, both countries can do more to address the sources of potential instability and improve their ability to manage the risks they would face during a crisis.
13. Title: Can Washington Win Over the Arab Street?: The Sources of Middle Eastern Anti-Americanism: It's Not Who We Are, It's What We Do/Lynch Replies
Authors: Jamal, Amaney A.
Abstract: In her book Of Empires and Citizens, the author argues that at the height of the period of authoritarian rule in the Middle East, Arab societies were divided between those people who benefited from their leaders' relationship with the US, and therefore sought to preserve the dictatorships, and those who did not, and therefore sought democracy. In his review of her book (The Persistence of Arab Anti-Americanism, May/June 2013), Marc Lynch implies that recent events in the Arab world have proved her wrong. He correctly notes that Islamist victories in Egypt and Tunisia have not brought the dramatic severing of ties with the US that she argues some in the region had expected. Lynch is correct to note that Arabs did not instantly embrace the US after Pres Barack Obama announced the US withdrawal from Iraq -- although it isn't clear why anyone would have seriously expected such a reaction.
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14. Title: New Deal, Old South: How FDR Propped Up Jim Crow
Authors: Lee, Taeku.
Abstract: Fear Itself: The New Deal and the Origins of Our Time, by Ira Katznelson, is reviewed.
15. Title: Political and Legal: The Resurgence of the West: How a Transatlantic Union Can Prevent War and Restore the United States and Europe