SEMESTER: WINTER
TEACHER’S NAME:Associated Professor Christian Tanushev,Ph.D.
OFFICE: 3024
E-MAIL:
TEACHER’S NAME:Assistant Professor Yovka Bankova, Ph.D.
OFFICE: 3019
E-MAIL:
1. ANNOTATION
Forecasting and Planning is acompulsory course for Bachelor degree programs in Economics taught in English. The course is taught during the third semester. The course requires background preparation of students in Macro and Microeconomics, Finance, and Statistics. The lectures introduce students to the theoretical concepts and aspects of forecasting and planning activities. The seminars aim at giving some practical skills to students through applying particular methods and instruments. The seminars are based on solving problems, discussions on actual case-studies and strategic planning documents.
The course introduces students with up-to-date basic and intermediate level concepts, frameworks, methodologies and principles of forecasting and planning on national and regional levels, and on a firm level. System perspective and systems’ approach, behavioral theory and strategic thinkingare the pillars of all the planning process issues. Difference and specifics of the different types of plans by hierarchical level and content are explained. The course explores crucial for the national economies, industries and companies, issues of competition and analysis of competition. A set of methods and tools to analyze the external and internal environment, to identify and create competitive advantage in a global context is discussed during the lectures and seminars. The issues of defining company’s vision and mission statements, objectives, goals, and strategies are introduced to the students. Basic knowledge about the business plan (purpose, logic, elements, etc.) is taught at the end of the course.
2. LANGUAGE OF TEACHING
ENGLISH
3. COURSE CONTENT (TOPICS)
1.Introduction in Forecasting and Planning
2.Behavioral Planning
3.Quantitative Methods of Forecasting
4.Qualitative Methods of Forecasting
5.Regional Planning
6.Strategic Thinking. Strategic Planning
7.Principles, Stages, Models of Planning
8.PESTN Analysis
9.Competition. Analysis of competition
10.Values, Vision and Mission Statements of the firm. Objectives and Priorities of the Firms. Typology of the Firms’ Strategies
11.Financial Ratios
12.Business Plan
4. METHODS OF TEACHINGLectures, seminars, multimedia presentations, group discussions, team papers, up-to-date articles and working papers
5.LEARNING OUTCOMES
On successful completion of this course the students should be able to:
- Understand planning documents and economic forecasts;
- Define objectives and priorities;
- Understand the interrelationship of internal and external environment of a system (on a given level – national; regional; company);
- Use tools and methods to analyze the external and internal environment;.
- Evaluate situations, problems, opportunities and to take decisions on this basis;
- Make short-term forecasts on the basis of smoothing forecasting methods;
- Understand different levels and types of strategies of companies;
- Develop alternative strategies and problem-solving scenarios;
- Prepare profit and cash-flow projections for the financial part of the business plan.
6. ASSESSMENT METHODS
The final examination will consist of theoretical questions (multiple choice and open), a forecasting problem and a short case study. Thestudents,whocoverbothtests, develop a team paper and present it, andparticipate actively during the seminars and if their grades are Very good /5/or Excellent /6/mayhave that grade as their final grade and may not attend the semester exam.
The final mark will consist of two parts:
- Current grade: 50%
- Final written exam: 50%
The current grade includes:
- Two mid-term tests-70 % (each 35%)
- Team paper - 25 %
- Participation in class work and discussions-5 %
The grades will be granted as follows:
Average /3/minimum 60%
Good /4/61% - 75%
Very good /5/76% - 90%
Excellent /6/more than 91%
7. REFERENCES (MANDATORY AND RECOMMENDED)
Mandatory:
Thompson A.A.Jr., A.J. Strickland, J.E. Gamble, Crafting and Executing Strategy: The Quest for Competitive Advantage: Concepts and Cases, ed.Mc Graw Hill, 2010.
Recommended:
A Companion to Economic Forecasting, ed. Clements M. and D. Hendry, Blackwell Publishers, 2002
Allmendigner Ph., Planning Theory, ed. Palgrave Macmilan, 2001
Bryson John M., Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit organizations, Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1990
Grant R., Contemporary Strategic Analysis, Blackwell, 2005
Mintzberg H., The Rise an Fall of Strategic Planning, Prentice Hall, 1994
Porter, M.E, The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Free Press, New York, 1990
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. Scott Armstrong (ed.): Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
The Business Environment, ed. Paul Wetherly and Dorron Otter, OxfordUniversity Press, 2008